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Brexit - Again

 

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leohoenig
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Sep 3, 2019, 7:54 PM

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Post #1 of 419 (4726 views)
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     Brexit - Again   or Reply Privately

Steve has asked that we restart with a new thread as it reduces the use of system resources, (most posters come in on the first new post when browsing).

Just a reminder to those of you posting on here, that the point is to discuss what is happening and what may happen. Just because someone disagrees with you does not make them a bad person, so argue the point as much as you like but always play the ball, not the man (or woman).


With the goings on in Parliament today, I think it was necessary to end the prorogation of discussion here.



Fat AND Pompous.
The proof that you can have too much of a good thing
Now blogging at http://www.leohoenig.com



Yatesman
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Sep 3, 2019, 8:52 PM

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Post #2 of 419 (4705 views)
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In Reply To
Steve has asked that we restart with a new thread as it reduces the use of system resources, (most posters come in on the first new post when browsing).

Just a reminder to those of you posting on here, that the point is to discuss what is happening and what may happen. Just because someone disagrees with you does not make them a bad person, so argue the point as much as you like but always play the ball, not the man (or woman).


With the goings on in Parliament today, I think it was necessary to end the prorogation of discussion here.


Got my phone out tonight , not something I usually do on holiday....Yate playing away at Exmouth in FACup replay so getting updates.......currently Yate bloody losing 1-0.......

Anyway point is I dont know what's going on in the UK re Parliament...
Can someone post an upshot of happenolings today by any chance?


northstandexile
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Sep 3, 2019, 8:53 PM

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Post #3 of 419 (4703 views)
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Does anyone on this board trust Boris Johnson in anything he says?

I know I donít.


steve walker
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Sep 3, 2019, 9:02 PM

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Post #4 of 419 (4697 views)
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Thanks to the EU scrapping roaming charges for mobile phone networks you should be able to check this without help from here in the same way that you can check on Yate updates. Can I recommend BBC Parliament channel.
But then you knew that already, you just wanted a summary you could argue against.


Yatesman
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Sep 3, 2019, 9:13 PM

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Post #5 of 419 (4692 views)
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In Reply To
Thanks to the EU scrapping roaming charges for mobile phone networks you should be able to check this without help from here in the same way that you can check on Yate updates. Can I recommend BBC Parliament channel.
But then you knew that already, you just wanted a summary you could argue against.


That's me telt.....

Of course you're wrong....

Updates are via text from a friend and I'm not wsisting time scourin g the internet for info......I am on holiday y'know.... and the missus is off getting the cheese and biscuits....!

Btw roaming chargescetc are mere baubles of EU membership and perfectly negotiable outside of EU....
Yate bloody losing 2-0....shocking!


(This post was edited by Yatesman on Sep 3, 2019, 9:14 PM)


PaulC
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Sep 3, 2019, 9:33 PM

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Post #6 of 419 (4674 views)
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In Reply To
Does anyone on this board trust Boris Johnson in anything he says?

I know I donít.


The QC at the Scottish Court of Sessions came up with a cracker today as he spoke of Johnson

"he doesn't get the benefit of any doubt. You look at the record, you try as best you can to determine the credibility and reliability of what is said against a background of an individual whose personal professional and political life has been characterised by incontinent mendacity or to make it plainer an unwillingness or inability to acknowledge and speak the truth"


steve walker
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Sep 3, 2019, 9:39 PM

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Post #7 of 419 (4672 views)
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In Reply To

In Reply To
Thanks to the EU scrapping roaming charges for mobile phone networks you should be able to check this without help from here in the same way that you can check on Yate updates. Can I recommend BBC Parliament channel.
But then you knew that already, you just wanted a summary you could argue against.


That's me telt.....

Of course you're wrong....

Updates are via text from a friend and I'm not wsisting time scourin g the internet for info......I am on holiday y'know.... and the missus is off getting the cheese and biscuits....!

Btw roaming chargescetc are mere baubles of EU membership and perfectly negotiable outside of EU....
Yate bloody losing 2-0....shocking!



Okay against my better judgement I will bite... here is the summary as I see it...Ö.

Johnson is very hopeful of securing a deal with the EU before Oct 31st which includes removing the Irish problem and is getting closer to it according to him. There have been 'meaningful discussions'.

The EU say they have had no proposals so far from Johnson to solve this problem so their stance is as unchanged as it always has been.

MPs are voting on a motion right now to allow a vote on a bill that will force an extension from Oct 31 to Jan 31 to allow a General Election or a Referendum, whichever, without us having left with no deal. It looks likely they will win, should know in a hour or so.

Due to Parliament being shut down for five weeks next week which cannot be reversed they have to get this through before Friday as there will be no time when Parliament reconvenes as the Queens speech normally takes 5 days of debate. Unlike a suspension for the Conferences season the prorogue means that all pending legislation going through the process is effectively wiped out.

The motion apparently says that the UK cannot leave the EU with no deal unless a deal has been agreed by Parliament or that Parliament has voted for a no deal.

I'm no expert but I think that's an accurate summary.

Meanwhile several Tory MPs have said they don't give a shit about the threat of being de-selected as they won't stand for the Tories at the next election anyway and another has defected to the Lib Dems to wipe out the Government majority.

Certainly Johnsons premiership after 1 day in Parliament is going not so well.


Ronsdog
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Sep 3, 2019, 9:45 PM

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Post #8 of 419 (4666 views)
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In Reply To
Steve has asked that we restart with a new thread as it reduces the use of system resources, (most posters come in on the first new post when browsing).
.


Could someone explain to me why the EU Withdrawal Negotiations thread has been junked in favour of Brexit Again when the Wetherspoons thread continues unabated after some nine years in existence. Surely the same systems overload applies.

Or is it that the goings on of a pub chain are considered to be of more importance than the most lively political topic for over a generation?


leohoenig
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Sep 3, 2019, 9:49 PM

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Post #9 of 419 (4662 views)
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The roaming across the EU is a very useful service and one that is down to EU regulation. Yes, the companies could have provided it without the EU insistence but just seeing the charges in Switzerland shows that this was not likely to happen.

Leaving the EU does not mean a sudden restart of high roaming charges - I would drop my current supplier if they restarted roaming charges and the others did not. Eventually, I would end up with an EU provider if all the UK suppliers resarted charges.

Anyway, taking the news from a single source, which may be biased it seems that Johnson has lost the arguments today and can be expected to lose the vote that follows. This only means that parliament gets to debate things tomorrow. If I was a Johnson supporting MP, (I am not), then I would still argue that he should lose the vote today - because if he can then win the vote tomorrow it gives some legitimacy to the course of action he is proposing.



Fat AND Pompous.
The proof that you can have too much of a good thing
Now blogging at http://www.leohoenig.com



leohoenig
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Sep 3, 2019, 10:29 PM

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Post #10 of 419 (4637 views)
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Parliament 328, Government 301.



Fat AND Pompous.
The proof that you can have too much of a good thing
Now blogging at http://www.leohoenig.com



Yatesman
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Sep 3, 2019, 10:29 PM

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Post #11 of 419 (4636 views)
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In Reply To
The roaming across the EU is a very useful service and one that is down to EU regulation. Yes, the companies could have provided it without the EU insistence but just seeing the charges in Switzerland shows that this was not likely to happen.

Leaving the EU does not mean a sudden restart of high roaming charges - I would drop my current supplier if they restarted roaming charges and the others did not. Eventually, I would end up with an EU provider if all the UK suppliers resarted charges.

Anyway, taking the news from a single source, which may be biased it seems that Johnson has lost the arguments today and can be expected to lose the vote that follows. This only means that parliament gets to debate things tomorrow. If I was a Johnson supporting MP, (I am not), then I would still argue that he should lose the vote today - because if he can then win the vote tomorrow it gives some legitimacy to the course of action he is proposing.


Ok......thanks.

Last post for a while from me...

From what little I can glean a GE is likely now and the Remainer alliance
has scuppered getting any changes to Withdrawal Deal.....Parliament will have set itself against the choice democratically expressed of and by the people ......

Tories will win the GE by a massive margin.
Labour dead in the water.


steve walker
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Sep 3, 2019, 10:36 PM

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Post #12 of 419 (4631 views)
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In Reply To

In Reply To
Steve has asked that we restart with a new thread as it reduces the use of system resources, (most posters come in on the first new post when browsing).
.


Could someone explain to me why the EU Withdrawal Negotiations thread has been junked in favour of Brexit Again when the Wetherspoons thread continues unabated after some nine years in existence. Surely the same systems overload applies.

Or is it that the goings on of a pub chain are considered to be of more importance than the most lively political topic for over a generation?



Since the EU thread had already been locked for a few days it seemed the perfect chance to start a new one.

It's nothing more sinister than that


buncranaboy
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Sep 3, 2019, 10:38 PM

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Post #13 of 419 (4628 views)
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Withdrawal deal ? Johnson had no intention of pursuing one. Meaningful discussions my arse.
You can't believe a single word he utters.......


007Dale
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Sep 4, 2019, 6:57 AM

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Post #14 of 419 (4545 views)
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It seems unlikely that the opposition parties are going to allow a general election before this legislation passes.

However, he has a couple more options;
1. He could issue new legislation allowing a general election, which would need a majority (not two-thirds majority), but it would be subject to ammendment.
2. He can ask the EU for an extension, as required by the new legislation, but then veto it as one of the 28 members has every right to.
3. He can allow the legislation to pass, then get a General Election, then seek to over-turn it. However, this is unlikely to happen before 31st October
4. The Leavers can try various tactics in the Lords (albeit they have a minority), such as trying to add ammendments or fillibuster.

However, having just dismissed 21 MPís from the Tory party, leaving him with 22 short of a working majority in Parliament, his options are receding.


PaulC
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Sep 4, 2019, 8:09 AM

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Post #15 of 419 (4532 views)
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He can also table of a vote of no confidence in himself.

He's such an inept chump he will lose that too.


PaulC
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Sep 4, 2019, 8:34 AM

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Post #16 of 419 (4525 views)
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Good old Daily Mail has got hold of the updated Yellowhammer document that Gove wouldn't release in case it scared the public


EXCLUSIVE: No Deal Brexit could lead to months of chaos, public disorder and food shortages, updated Government dossier reveals

Leaked government document warns few individuals are prepared for No Deal
The 150-page-assessment outlines Government's contingency plans for No Deal
Includes five-page annexe with 'reasonable worst case planning assumptions'
Version seen by the Mail was due to be published by Gove but pulled last night


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/...tter_impression=true


(This post was edited by PaulC on Sep 4, 2019, 8:35 AM)


leohoenig
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Sep 4, 2019, 9:15 AM

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Post #17 of 419 (4517 views)
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If I understood correctly, the MPs were only threatened with withdrawal of the whip and deselection, and this will not be carried out if they return to the fold in today's debate. The warped logic of my mind says that it is right for today's debate to happen even if it ends in a Johnson victory. Some of the MPs that voted against him yesterday may well feel the same

A general election, while probable, is not the easiest way to settle matters. There is a risk that it ends up as a bipolar event between the "no-deal brexiters" and the "remainers", leaving those that want Brexit, but do not want no-deal with a stark choice. The fact that Johnson has been claiming to play a game of poker where the no-deal is a bluff in order to obtain a deal will confuse some into voting for something they do not want. It is very difficult to bluff in poker while all of your cards are face up, and I cannot see Johnson achieving this. He will of course try to heap the blame on this on the opposition, (especially the opposition within).

Throughout the year, as the government has stumbled over one vote after another it has been clear there is not a majority in Parliament for any of the three major options, (Repeal Article 50, The deal negotiated by Mrs May's team, No-Deal Brexit). If this is the case, then the logical answer is a new referendum - I would go a two question on the voting slip

  1. Do you agree with the Government's intention for Britain to exit the EU on (insert date here). Yes/No
  2. The Government's intention is to leave in accordance with the deal as set out, the alternative is to leave without a deal. If the vote is to exit the EU, then do you agree with the Government's intention to leave in accordance with the deal. Yes/No


I think the reason why this type of approach has not been taken by parliament is because regardless of the results it produces, there is currently a majority in the house that disagrees with it.

If we were to have the second referendum before an election and parliament still cannot agree to vote in accordance with results, then it is time for the general election with some MPs forced to go to their constituents and say that they voted against the clearly expressed views of the constituency.

[Yes, I can see at least one flaw in my argument but I have left that for someone else to point out]



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Now blogging at http://www.leohoenig.com



PaulC
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Sep 4, 2019, 9:53 AM

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Post #18 of 419 (4506 views)
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In Reply To
If I understood correctly, the MPs were only threatened with withdrawal of the whip and deselection, and this will not be carried out if they return to the fold in today's debate. The warped logic of my mind says that it is right for today's debate to happen even if it ends in a Johnson victory. Some of the MPs that voted against him yesterday may well feel the same


Andrea Loathsome made that claim last night.

She was quickly slapped down. They've gone.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/...-gets-no-10-19396802


hawkwind
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Sep 4, 2019, 9:59 AM

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Post #19 of 419 (4505 views)
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The Conservative whip was withdrawn from 21 MPs last night.


PaulC
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Sep 4, 2019, 10:04 AM

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Post #20 of 419 (4502 views)
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The Conservative whip was withdrawn from 21 MPs last night.


Rory Stewart got his news by text message.


leohoenig
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Sep 4, 2019, 10:05 AM

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Post #21 of 419 (4502 views)
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I stand corrected - I saw the Leadsome quote yesterday and thought this was the decision



Fat AND Pompous.
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Now blogging at http://www.leohoenig.com



PaulC
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Sep 4, 2019, 10:23 AM

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Towlawtom
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Sep 4, 2019, 10:47 AM

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Post #23 of 419 (4480 views)
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As an election is now imminent, this is likely to be the biggest election of all time where tactical voting comes into play. I would expect the Tory and Brexit party to form a pact putting up one candidate.
Therefore, I would urge all remain/ against no deal parties to do the same, to put up just one candidate that has the best chance of defeating either of the above.
The worst possible scenario for remainers is that it should stop a Johnson majority.



I need to have the last word, as it always looks as if I am right !


PaulC
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Sep 4, 2019, 1:15 PM

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Post #24 of 419 (4434 views)
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Has anyone ever seen a PM get such a horse whipping at PMQs.

I almost felt sorry for him.


Blanc Mange
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Sep 4, 2019, 1:32 PM

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Post #25 of 419 (4427 views)
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Iím no fan of Boris but youíve mustíve watching a different PMQís to me but saying that after Ian Blackfordís interminable 2nd question we probably both fell asleepLaugh

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