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Home: Non-League Football Discussion: Restructuring Discussion:
Non League Projections 2019/20

 

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THDrummer1
Junior Team Star

Feb 11, 2019, 7:12 PM

Posts: 88
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Post #351 of 1236 (14903 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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Apparently Golcar United's planning permission for floodlights is still in progress, no decision date from the local council as yet. A few neighbouring householders have objected, so don't know if that'll be agreed within the required timescale.



There’s been 7 objections, but they’re hoping to get the planning permission this week.


Thanks for the update Windy.
As an aside, I've been looking at the spreadsheet in some detail for the first time and there seems to be a massive amount of relegation reprieves at step 6 (only 4 teams being relegated) - do you think this is an accurate prediction?


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Feb 11, 2019, 7:31 PM

Posts: 10430
Location: Barnetby
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #352 of 1236 (14882 views)
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Re: [THDrummer1] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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Apparently Golcar United's planning permission for floodlights is still in progress, no decision date from the local council as yet. A few neighbouring householders have objected, so don't know if that'll be agreed within the required timescale.



There’s been 7 objections, but they’re hoping to get the planning permission this week.


Thanks for the update Windy.
As an aside, I've been looking at the spreadsheet in some detail for the first time and there seems to be a massive amount of relegation reprieves at step 6 (only 4 teams being relegated) - do you think this is an accurate prediction?



Personally I think there’ll be regional disparities & that’s why its a bit of a guessing game. Whilst there’s spaces in certain leagues & the upcoming restructuring next season. I can’t understand why the FALC wouldn’t laterally transfer teams instead of relegating any teams. But last season proved that the LC make some strange decisions. So, I personally think there’ll be more relegations than Rob’s predicted.


(This post was edited by windydcfc on Feb 11, 2019, 8:15 PM)


THDrummer1
Junior Team Star

Feb 11, 2019, 8:01 PM

Posts: 88
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Post #353 of 1236 (14830 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To
Apparently Golcar United's planning permission for floodlights is still in progress, no decision date from the local council as yet. A few neighbouring householders have objected, so don't know if that'll be agreed within the required timescale.



There’s been 7 objections, but they’re hoping to get the planning permission this week.


Thanks for the update Windy.
As an aside, I've been looking at the spreadsheet in some detail for the first time and there seems to be a massive amount of relegation reprieves at step 6 (only 4 teams being relegated) - do you think this is an accurate prediction?



Personally I think I think there’ll be regional disparities & that’s why its a bit of a guessing game. Whilst there’s spaces in certain leagues & the upcoming restructuring next season. I can’t understand why the FALC wouldn’t laterally transfer teams instead of relegating any teams. But last season proved that the LC make some strange decisions. So, I personally think there’ll be more relegations than Rob’s predicted.


Thanks. It does seem like an ideal time to laterally move teams thus reducing travelling as per the FA's own objectives. But, as you say with the FA anything can happen.


wazzafan
First Team Sub

Feb 12, 2019, 7:20 AM

Posts: 980
Location: Warrington
Team(s): Warrington Town

Post #354 of 1236 (14475 views)
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Re: [THDrummer1] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Nothing's accurate, or based on 'inside' knowledge at all. They're just my own predictions. Dunston UTS could be put in a difficult position. I think they're is every chance they could be the team (promoted remember, not transferred) to the NPW and what happens if they refuse? Automatic relegation to Step 6! If you say It'll only be for one season and if it does indeed reduce NPE travelling / evens out the travelling between both leagues I think it will happen.



Non League Projections - 2018/19: http://goo.gl/5UvkvE

Step 1: http://goo.gl/9QipfY
Step 2: http://goo.gl/VoE1oY
Step 3: http://goo.gl/Ru3jUk
Step 4: http://goo.gl/QHVmDA
Step 5: http://goo.gl/VrnrYg
Step 6: http://goo.gl/Mk86of


THDrummer1
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Feb 12, 2019, 8:37 AM

Posts: 88
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Post #355 of 1236 (14398 views)
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Re: [wazzafan] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Thanks Wazza.
How likely do you think it is that the Notts based club's will be laterally moved from the NCEL1? As I mentioned previously one club I spoke to didn't know anything about this.


BillShep
Youth Team Regular

Feb 12, 2019, 11:12 AM

Posts: 198
Location: Anfield, Liverpool
Team(s): City of Liverpool FC

Post #356 of 1236 (14251 views)
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Re: [wazzafan] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Nothing's accurate, or based on 'inside' knowledge at all. They're just my own predictions. Dunston UTS could be put in a difficult position. I think they're is every chance they could be the team (promoted remember, not transferred) to the NPW and what happens if they refuse? Automatic relegation to Step 6! If you say It'll only be for one season and if it does indeed reduce NPE travelling / evens out the travelling between both leagues I think it will happen.


What if that does happen and Dunston are not happy. Does a team have to refuse first before an Appeal or can they Appeal a decision without initially refusing. I am on about a decision to what League they go into initially, not the relegation to Step 6.



----------------------------------------------------------
Evo-Stick North/West Division 1919/20
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City of Liverpool FC - Debut season 2016/17

54th ground watching CoLFC - Yorkshire Payments Stadium, Brighouse Town. Result lost 1-2 Att: 258
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84th - Yorkshire Payments Stadium, Brighouse Town 14/09/19





pokal02
First Team Star

Feb 12, 2019, 11:19 AM

Posts: 2280
Location: Cockfosters
Team(s): Barnet, Cockfosters, Truro City, Udinese

Post #357 of 1236 (14240 views)
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Re: [BillShep] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Morpeth will probably go up and Marske is practically on the east coast, so if this is happening it would have to be Dunston (or Consett/Bishop Auckland which is only marginally less daft).

I accept that some teams are being disadvantaged for what the FA seees as the greater good (Wisbech & Ellesmere spring to mind) but this would surely be a step too far unless substantial financial compensation was involved.


Terrierdave
Youth Team Star

Feb 12, 2019, 11:40 AM

Posts: 363
Location: Newcastle upon Tyne (previously Bedlington)
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Post #358 of 1236 (14214 views)
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Re: [pokal02] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

The mere thought that anyone in authority could consider transferring Morpeth/Marske/Dunston to a Western based league is barking mad.


Northumbrian
Reserve Team Sub

Feb 12, 2019, 11:47 AM

Posts: 449
Location: Northumberland
Team(s): Ponteland Utd, Newcastle Utd

Post #359 of 1236 (14204 views)
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Re: [pokal02] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Some good points already in this thread re: Dunston but is their travelling much worse in the NPL(W) compared to the NPL(E)? At a quick glance the former is going down A1 then across to Manchester on the M62 and the latter is going down the A1, past the M62, and continuing on to Notts/Lincs etc.
Huge travelling involved either way. Will Morpeth actually have less travelling if they’re promoted next season?

(This post was edited by Northumbrian on Feb 12, 2019, 11:53 AM)


exile
Youth Team Sub

Feb 12, 2019, 11:52 AM

Posts: 151
Location: Driffield
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Post #360 of 1236 (14180 views)
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Re: [Northumbrian] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Don't know about the mileage but the amount of traffic on the M62 compared to the A1 would increase travelling time substantially I would have thought.


Northumbrian
Reserve Team Sub

Feb 12, 2019, 12:17 PM

Posts: 449
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Team(s): Ponteland Utd, Newcastle Utd

Post #361 of 1236 (14134 views)
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Re: [exile] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Personally I’ve never noticed any difference on the M62 compared with the M1 south of Leeds or the A1 but you may use them more often than myself.
On another note is there any evidence the FAs reorganisation has actually reduced travelling distances? The NPL(W) clubs seemed to have benefited and the London clubs don’t have to go into East Anglia anymore but apart from that has there been any positives?
To play Devils Advocate is the whole exercise designed to try and stop the Northern League’s dominance in the FA Vase?

(This post was edited by Northumbrian on Feb 12, 2019, 12:19 PM)


genesimmons
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Feb 12, 2019, 1:43 PM

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Post #362 of 1236 (13990 views)
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Re: [Northumbrian] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

i was all for the east/west split, sure easier by public transport until it was announced it would include teams from Cambridgeshire. I always thought a east west split would go no further south than nottingham or derby, maybe this is the eventual aim.



You wanted the best, you got the best


oftenscore6
Chelsea Transfer Target

Feb 12, 2019, 2:37 PM

Posts: 5199
Location: Saddleworth
Team(s): FCUM, MUFC, Hammarby, St Pauli, Hawthorn (AFL)

Post #363 of 1236 (13929 views)
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Re: [THDrummer1] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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Thanks. It does seem like an ideal time to laterally move teams thus reducing travelling as per the FA's own objectives. But, as you say with the FA anything can happen.

The thing is, moving teams laterally does not always reduce travelling. Often, it increases it, from a natural region that the step 5/6 leagues were into an unnatural one, to fit an 'equal promotion/releagtion between unequal divisions.



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On the agenda:
21/9 FC United v Warrington Town
24/9 Warrington Town v FC United


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Feb 12, 2019, 5:13 PM

Posts: 10430
Location: Barnetby
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #364 of 1236 (13734 views)
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Re: [genesimmons] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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i was all for the east/west split, sure easier by public transport until it was announced it would include teams from Cambridgeshire. I always thought a east west split would go no further south than nottingham or derby, maybe this is the eventual aim.



The extra step 4 league isn’t supposed to go south of Sheffield. In fact at the meeting between the FA & the NL clubs the Northeastern clubs want the league to go no lower than north of Sheffield. So this current situation is only going to drag on for one more season & I can’t see any reason to split the ex-NL away from teams from North & West Yorkshire. They would’ve have to drive past them to get onto the M62 & then the NPL1W.


wazzafan
First Team Sub

Feb 12, 2019, 6:10 PM

Posts: 980
Location: Warrington
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Post #365 of 1236 (13565 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

I can't help but see it as anyone south of Sheffield as the ones being in the new league. But it's the same difference.
It could be anyone I guess who moves over. They may relegate Mickleover into the NPW instead. The obviously easiest outcome would be if two teams are relegated to the NPW instead of one.



Non League Projections - 2018/19: http://goo.gl/5UvkvE

Step 1: http://goo.gl/9QipfY
Step 2: http://goo.gl/VoE1oY
Step 3: http://goo.gl/Ru3jUk
Step 4: http://goo.gl/QHVmDA
Step 5: http://goo.gl/VrnrYg
Step 6: http://goo.gl/Mk86of


BDA_85
First Team Regular

Feb 12, 2019, 6:25 PM

Posts: 1356
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Post #366 of 1236 (13524 views)
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Re: [wazzafan] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Some great work has gone into this thread, from both wazzafan and those questioning the decisions.
Has a similar thread been done for previous seasons? If so, how similar to reality have the projections been?


wazzafan
First Team Sub

Feb 12, 2019, 6:31 PM

Posts: 980
Location: Warrington
Team(s): Warrington Town

Post #367 of 1236 (13510 views)
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Re: [BDA_85] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

I've been doing it for a few seasons now. At a guess I'm probably about 70% accurate. The FA always surprise us with some allocations. Scarborough in the Northern Premier South remains a highlight.



Non League Projections - 2018/19: http://goo.gl/5UvkvE

Step 1: http://goo.gl/9QipfY
Step 2: http://goo.gl/VoE1oY
Step 3: http://goo.gl/Ru3jUk
Step 4: http://goo.gl/QHVmDA
Step 5: http://goo.gl/VrnrYg
Step 6: http://goo.gl/Mk86of


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Feb 12, 2019, 7:02 PM

Posts: 10430
Location: Barnetby
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #368 of 1236 (13467 views)
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Re: [wazzafan] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
I've been doing it for a few seasons now. At a guess I'm probably about 70% accurate. The FA always surprise us with some allocations. Scarborough in the Northern Premier South remains a highlight.



I thought the SL Div1’s splitting east/west a few years ago was a bit of a curve ball that no one was expecting.
Going back to the current projections. The travelling time almost doubles for Bridlington in the NL. That’s why I think Knaresborough & Harrogate RA will be moved. It’s only 28 miles between Knaresborough & Northallerton.


(This post was edited by windydcfc on Feb 12, 2019, 7:09 PM)


wazzafan
First Team Sub

Feb 13, 2019, 11:39 AM

Posts: 980
Location: Warrington
Team(s): Warrington Town

Post #369 of 1236 (12057 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

I couldn't help myself but update after last night now Warrington are back being projected to the National North Laugh

All change again now though at Step 5.



Non League Projections - 2018/19: http://goo.gl/5UvkvE

Step 1: http://goo.gl/9QipfY
Step 2: http://goo.gl/VoE1oY
Step 3: http://goo.gl/Ru3jUk
Step 4: http://goo.gl/QHVmDA
Step 5: http://goo.gl/VrnrYg
Step 6: http://goo.gl/Mk86of


Sarumio
Man City Transfer Target!

Feb 13, 2019, 12:23 PM

Posts: 6295
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Team(s): Salisbury

Post #370 of 1236 (11941 views)
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Re: [wazzafan] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Just a small mistake - you have Stone Dynamoes in the Step 6 relegations section - this should be Dominoes


PeteyPenDrive
Ballboy/girl

Feb 13, 2019, 3:56 PM

Posts: 5
Location: Derby
Team(s): Oxford United, Didcot Town, Mickleover Sports

Post #371 of 1236 (11328 views)
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Re: [Sarumio] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Surely Stourbridge are getting the step 3 promotion over Salisbury now that they have a better PPG?

Could make for some shuffling at Steps 2 & 3?
Oxford/Gloucester City to the Nat South?
Harlow into SLPC? Met Police into ILP and Salisbury back into SLPS? Unsure

This is my outsider view looking in.


borninchesham
Youth Team Star

Feb 13, 2019, 4:14 PM

Posts: 273
Location: Ipswich
Team(s): Queens Park Rangers & Chesham United

Post #372 of 1236 (11276 views)
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Re: [PeteyPenDrive] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

I would sugest that it could be Chesham that replaced Stourbridge in the SLC with Harlow & Met Police staying where they are.
That would keep transfers to a minimum & IMO more logical.


shimtoan
First Team Regular


Feb 13, 2019, 4:45 PM

Posts: 1352
Location: Dunkirk, Nottingham
Team(s): Dunkirk

Post #373 of 1236 (11201 views)
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Re: [borninchesham] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Personally, I'd say Ossett United going West with how it stands. My sole reason being their proximity to the M62



unless stated, all views are my own and are not the views of any other person, club, or organisation


blackdouglas
Chelsea Transfer Target


Feb 13, 2019, 9:05 PM

Posts: 3301
Location: Northwood, Middlesex
Team(s): See signature for clubs

Post #374 of 1236 (10650 views)
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Re: [PeteyPenDrive] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Surely Stourbridge are getting the step 3 promotion over Salisbury now that they have a better PPG?

Could make for some shuffling at Steps 2 & 3?
Oxford/Gloucester City to the Nat South?
Harlow into SLPC? Met Police into ILP and Salisbury back into SLPS? Unsure

This is my outsider view looking in.


Wazzafan is guessing that Stourbridge will lose out in the Step 3 inter-divisional super play-off with the NPL play-off winner. Just as Salisbury will prevail in the Step 3 inter-divisional super play-off against the Isthmian play-off winner.



Northwood, Threave Rovers, Arsenal, Rangers (the real ones, NOT qpr),Watford, Rochdale, queen of the south and a few others.


THDrummer1
Junior Team Star

Feb 14, 2019, 11:25 AM

Posts: 88
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Post #375 of 1236 (9998 views)
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Re: [wazzafan] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Hi all.

Please note the following is ignoring the proposed South West Peninsula Leagues who seem to be 'out of scheme'.

Looking specifically at step 5 and using the FA's ideal of 20 teams per division, there are 3 vacancies (1 in Hellenic Premier League, 2 in Northern Lge Div 1).

Looking across step 6 and using the FA's ideal of 20 teams per division (16 teams for each of the Hellenic Div 1 East and West and 18 teams Southern Combination 1) - there are 16 vacancies.

As such across step 5 and 6 there are 19 vacancies.

It appears that clubs from 27 step 7 leagues have applied for a step 6 position (only one promoted per league).

Assuming all these clubs achieve the required ground grading and a top 5 place, 8 teams would need to be relegated from step 6 to accommodate them.

Would the following make sense?

8 bottom placed clubs at step 6 with the worst points per game ratio get relegated and adjustments are made to each league by lateral transfers (keeping in mind the FA's goal of reducing travelling).

Is this what is proposed? Does this fit in with the FA's aim of being consistent across all leagues (as per play-offs)?

Will the FA do this if it makes sense and is fair???

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