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General Election 2019

 

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hawkwind
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Nov 24, 2019, 5:13 PM

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I watched the first three, but had to miss Johnson. I'll catch up with it on iplayer.

Corbyn I thought surprisingly impressive, Sturgeon also seemed solid and able to give credible answers.

Swinson was a rabbit caught in the headlights. A series of easily predictable questions left her floundering. Asked about her support for austerity measures during the Cameron/Clegg coalition, or about her declaration to revoke leaving the EU without another Referendum, or about her claim to be a possible PM, she was unable to come up with credible responses.

Her performance was so bad it almost defied belief. The leaders are supposed to have practice sessions with their advisers, in which the most hostile possible questioning is tried out in order to ready them for the real thing. There was little evidence of her benefitting from such sessions. She's well out of her depth. I'm not even convinced she will even hang on to her own seat, where her majority is small.

If Johnson was worse, he must have been truly woeful.

.


Broadly speaking I agree with your analysis.

The BBC programme was a vast improvement on the ITV evening. Partly because Fiona Bruce perfectly fulfilled her role as moderator facilitating the evening, partly because of the level of questioning, sometimes hostile, always serious. Exactly the challenging environment that exposes weaknesses both of policy and personal character.

Jeremy Corbyn impressed. Far more comfortable now that the Labour Party manifesto + associated costings have been published. I appreciated him prioritising factual responses promoting Labour policy, rather than attacking other leaders. Faced up to all questioning. Spoke throughout respectfully and honestly. The first message that shone through is that Labour policy is democratic mainstream. Raising corporation tax but still several percentage points below France and Germany, taking into public ownership natural monopolies, increasing taxes for the top 5% (NB those earning above £80K). A fairer society. Finally, the big positive for me, a clear and unambiguous personal position on Brexit. Given the current divisions in the UK I believe that Corbyn's position is the most statesmanlike possible, and will give us the best chance to reunite the country. In fact, Corbyn's whole performance was a statesman's.

Nicola Sturgeon impressed as she had a few days earlier on ITV. Professional, competent, she has the leadership qualities that give me confidence in her on both domestic and international stage. Knows her subject inside out. Whatever questions were thrown at her answered all respectfully, nothing phased her. Highlight her response to a recovering drug addict. Evident desire to do the best possible job for Scotland. It is true that not being in Scotland I can look at Sturgeons's performance from a detached view disinterested in her policies, I couldn't vote SNP in the upcoming GE even if I wanted to, nevertheless she serves as an outstanding positive benchmark against whom others can be measured.

Jo Swinson oh dear. A car crash of a performance. There's a place for a party that is basically moderate-right economically and moderate-left socially (given the purging of Conservative moderates there's even room for social policies extending across the centre to moderate-right). Maybe in government with a leader with the same qualities as Macron or Vestager, but that leader isn't Swinson. Questions were no easier no more difficult than those faced by the three others, Swinson came over as you said as a 'rabbit in the headlights'. How damaging is this performance to Liberal Democrats? Probably not great as hardly anyone thought they would form the government. The one positive she at least did reply to the questions - however badly.

Boris Johnson. Embarrassing shameful performance. A mixture of rhetoric, lies, attacks, and oft used one-liners. If as Johnson claims there is nothing to see in the 'Russian interference' report why refuse to publish it? If as Johnson claims he's happy to be scrutinised why not answer all the questions from the audience, why avoid appearing in front of the Liaison Committee, why attempt to prorogue parliament for five weeks, why when the Withdrawal Bill passed Second Reading did he pull it, why refuse to appear on a Channel 4 election debate discussing the climate emergency, and many more questions? There are even more serious questions concerning the future which revolve around how much control does Johnson have in his own destination? Who's 'influencing' Johnson? If the Conservatives did win an overall majority why would the ERG want to keep Johnson at Number 10? Would a Withdrawal Bill be the same or more citizen restrictive? Who could the ERG install in Johnson's place? Some of these questions may be answered before 12th December.

On policy of the parties present that I can vote for Labour for me are ahead by a country mile, Liberal Democrat second. On leaders' performance on the night Sturgeon first, Corbyn second, the rest nowhere.


Towlawtom
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Nov 24, 2019, 5:19 PM

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Post #402 of 596 (732 views)
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[
With all polls still comfortably showing a 10+ lead for the Tories, it suggests that the Labour manifesto simply isn’t believed as credible by the majority of people. Funny that.


"Theresa May looks on course for a definitive victory over Jeremy Corbyn in the general election, as the final poll for The Independent shows her party enjoying a 10-point lead over Labour."
The Independent Wednesday 7 June 2017.


The Guardian had the Tories with a 12 point lead over Labour day before 2017 election

If Paul C is correct with Com res at a now 10 point lead then thats the same as to what they quoted the day before the 2017 election.



I need to have the last word, as it always looks as if I am right !

(This post was edited by Towlawtom on Nov 24, 2019, 5:24 PM)


007Dale
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Nov 24, 2019, 6:47 PM

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increasing taxes for the top 5% (NB those earning above £80K). A fairer society.

In Reply To

Of course all of these promises can’t be funded by tax increases for the top 5%, hence why the manifesto has had no cut-through in the polls - no one believes it.

But let’s (for a minute) assume it does limit tax rises to the top 5%. And everyone goes, well that sounds fair. Surely they’ll win the election as they’ve only lost 5% of the vote. Ah, but here’s the punch in the gut; 95% of that 5% are in London and the south east, which means they’ve just cost themselves huge chunks of support in seats they need to win to secure a majority, whilst shoring-up support in the Northern constituencies they were going to win anyway.

And of course, people earning £80k, sounds a lot to people living in the north. Until you try and buy a house in the South, or pay for your rail ticket into London. Here are some numbers; people earning £80k, pay £25k in tax today (31%). They’ll pay £5k on average for a season ticket. Now down to £50k net pay - but that still sounds like a lot. Except, to buy a bog-standard 3-bedroom semi, probably costs on average £500k (much higher in many places). A 90% mortgage on that bad-boy is £28k a year. So that leaves them with £22k a year net after tax and mortgage. Utilities, council tax, insurance etc another £6k a year, now their down to £16k left.
Are they allowed a car? Repayment and cost of running one basic car is probably £4K a year. So they are down to £12k.
Now they need to eat. Let’s say £150 a week food bill for a family of four, that’s £8k a year.
So now they have £4K left for everything else: pension, holidays, Christmas, nursery fees, clothes, mobile phone etc etc.
So, is a person who earns £80k a year in London, better or worse off than a person earning £60k in Hartlepool, living in the same size house?

An alternative view point from one of the 5% that is expected to fund this Economy-ruining manifesto that the socialists have cooked-up.


Steveb
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Nov 24, 2019, 7:11 PM

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Post #404 of 596 (690 views)
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In Reply To
increasing taxes for the top 5% (NB those earning above £80K). A fairer society.

In Reply To

Of course all of these promises can’t be funded by tax increases for the top 5%, hence why the manifesto has had no cut-through in the polls - no one believes it.

But let’s (for a minute) assume it does limit tax rises to the top 5%. And everyone goes, well that sounds fair. Surely they’ll win the election as they’ve only lost 5% of the vote. Ah, but here’s the punch in the gut; 95% of that 5% are in London and the south east, which means they’ve just cost themselves huge chunks of support in seats they need to win to secure a majority, whilst shoring-up support in the Northern constituencies they were going to win anyway.

And of course, people earning £80k, sounds a lot to people living in the north. Until you try and buy a house in the South, or pay for your rail ticket into London. Here are some numbers; people earning £80k, pay £25k in tax today (31%). They’ll pay £5k on average for a season ticket. Now down to £50k net pay - but that still sounds like a lot. Except, to buy a bog-standard 3-bedroom semi, probably costs on average £500k (much higher in many places). A 90% mortgage on that bad-boy is £28k a year. So that leaves them with £22k a year net after tax and mortgage. Utilities, council tax, insurance etc another £6k a year, now their down to £16k left.
Are they allowed a car? Repayment and cost of running one basic car is probably £4K a year. So they are down to £12k.
Now they need to eat. Let’s say £150 a week food bill for a family of four, that’s £8k a year.
So now they have £4K left for everything else: pension, holidays, Christmas, nursery fees, clothes, mobile phone etc etc.
So, is a person who earns £80k a year in London, better or worse off than a person earning £60k in Hartlepool, living in the same size house?

An alternative view point from one of the 5% that is expected to fund this Economy-ruining manifesto that the socialists have cooked-up.


You’re making a false assumption that everyone who would pay a little more will be against doing so.

I don’t earn £80k, but even on my salary I wouldn’t object to paying more than I do for better services that we’d all benefit from.




http://stevebthegroundhopper.blogspot.co.uk/




PaulC
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Nov 24, 2019, 7:30 PM

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And of course, people earning £80k, sounds a lot to people living in the north. Until you try and buy a house in the South, or pay for your rail ticket into London. Here are some numbers; people earning £80k, pay £25k in tax today (31%). They’ll pay £5k on average for a season ticket. Now down to £50k net pay - but that still sounds like a lot. Except, to buy a bog-standard 3-bedroom semi, probably costs on average £500k (much higher in many places). A 90% mortgage on that bad-boy is £28k a year. So that leaves them with £22k a year net after tax and mortgage. Utilities, council tax, insurance etc another £6k a year, now their down to £16k left.
Are they allowed a car? Repayment and cost of running one basic car is probably £4K a year. So they are down to £12k.
Now they need to eat. Let’s say £150 a week food bill for a family of four, that’s £8k a year.
So now they have £4K left for everything else: pension, holidays, Christmas, nursery fees, clothes, mobile phone etc etc.
So, is a person who earns £80k a year in London, better or worse off than a person earning £60k in Hartlepool, living in the same size house?


Since £80k is said to be the cut-off, you will be paying no additional tax at that level of earnings.


Yatesman
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Nov 24, 2019, 7:31 PM

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Post #406 of 596 (670 views)
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Voters: Let's have more of that please!


Sometimes, when I'm in a particularly malevolent frame of mind I think "I'm fine, I'm well off - these idiot working class Tory/Brexiteers deserve what's coming to them."


Nice!..........I see the 'Demonisation of the Working Class' force is strong in you.


PaulC
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Nov 24, 2019, 7:43 PM

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Nice!..........I see the 'Demonisation of the Working Class' force is strong in you.


If Tory working class voters (and clearly that isn't all working class voters by a long chalk) can't be saved from their own stupidity then they are going to suffer the consequences. Sadly it looks as if there is no cure for this stupidity. They simply lack the ability to realise when they are being taken for a ride by the lying Tories and their lying media; so in a sense it is not their fault.

So yes, I need to be in a particularly malevolent frame of mind to think "hell mend them". Because mainly, I feel sorry for them.


Towlawtom
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Nov 24, 2019, 8:13 PM

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Post #408 of 596 (652 views)
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Re: [PaulC] General Election 2019 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

?


Since £80k is said to be the cut-off, you will be paying no additional tax at that level of earnings.


I wonder if many of those on 80k a year will threaten to leave the UK if Corbyn forms a government. If they do, I'm wondering where many of them will go as one can assume they won't be going to any of the other 27 EU countries as they hate them so much!



I need to have the last word, as it always looks as if I am right !


007Dale
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Nov 24, 2019, 8:29 PM

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Post #409 of 596 (644 views)
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You’re making a false assumption that everyone who would pay a little more will be against doing so.

I don’t earn £80k, but even on my salary I wouldn’t object to paying more than I do for better services that we’d all benefit from.


You are absolutely right, some of the ‘5%’ may put their hands up to pay more tax. But I’d counter that the ‘next 5%’ will probably be unhappy at higher taxes - on the basis they aspire to get to the £80k+ range.

I’ve merely offered an alternative viewpoint from the so-called ‘rich’. In my example, does our harassed and hardworking taxpayer, seem Rich? Probably not. Well off? Unlikely. Comfortable? Maybe.

How about a forty-something lawyer in Manchester earning £70k? He has a five-bedroom detached house bought 10 years ago, has paid a large part of the mortgage and can drive to work in his Mercedes. He’s a member of the local exclusive golf resort and holiday’s three times a year, including a skiing trip. He still has more left over from his salary after all of these outlays, when compared with our Southerner. Does our lawyer consider himself Rich? Probably.

Now our Northerner and our southerner both receive a one-off £5k bonus for extremely strong performance in the year. Who gets to spend more of this money? Our Comfortable Southerner or Rich Northerner?

As a few on here have expressed astonishment that people would consider not voting for Labour, the above might offer
Some explanation as to why.


PaulC
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Nov 24, 2019, 8:38 PM

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?


Since £80k is said to be the cut-off, you will be paying no additional tax at that level of earnings.


I wonder if many of those on 80k a year will threaten to leave the UK if Corbyn forms a government. If they do, I'm wondering where many of them will go as one can assume they won't be going to any of the other 27 EU countries as they hate them so much!


Maybe they’ll leave London and live it up in Hartlepool.


PaulC
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Nov 24, 2019, 9:07 PM

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Re: [007Dale] General Election 2019 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

High income earners tend to vote Tory. That doesn’t come as any great surprise and if you are in the top vingtile of incomes you are assuredly a high earner.

There are, of course, those high earners who see taxation not as a punishment but as a means of creating a better society where hospitals and schools are not collapsing around us and pensioners are not amongst the most poorly rewarded in the civilised world. Others, of course, just think of themselves and their bank balances and follow the Thatcherite dictum of there being “no such thing as society”. They are driven by greed and selfishness - core Tory values.


007Dale
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Nov 25, 2019, 7:15 AM

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Others, of course, just think of themselves and their bank balances and follow the Thatcherite dictum of there being “no such thing as society”. They are driven by greed and selfishness - core Tory values.


I don’t think anyone is arguing against a progressive tax system (I’m certainly not anyway). But we already have a system where those earning more, pay more. Some examples of the tax rates on salaries:

£20,000 salary pays 14% in tax and NI
£40,000 salary pays 23% in tax and NI
£70,000 salary pays 30% in tax and NI
£100,000 salary pays 33.5.% in tax and NI
£200,000 salary pays 41% in tax and NI

Those earning more, pay more and are (mostly) happy to do so. We don’t need to insult them as they do it (‘greed and selfishness’).

The question debated is; should they pay even more?

I would counter that if we get to a scenario where for every extra £1 you earn, you pay over half to the government, this is probably not the best way to encourage growth, aspiration and drive.

So, if everyone wants much better public services and to pay the cost of nationalising the utilities, trains and mail service, then everyone should pay - increase all tax rates.


007Dale
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Nov 25, 2019, 7:44 AM

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YouGov (21st/22nd) has the Tories at 12% lead - level with the last survey (18th/19th).


Opinium for the "Observer" has these standings:

Tories 47%
Labour 28%
Lib Dems 12%
Brexit Party 3%

Polled 20-22 Nov

.


Electoral Calculus has refreshed its predictions based on a sample of 9,900 people between 19th and 23rd Nov;

Conservative: 365 (+47 on 2017)
Labour: 202 (-60)
Liberal Democrat’s: 20 (+8)
SNP: 41 (+6)

Conservative majority 80.


PaulC
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Nov 25, 2019, 8:54 AM

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One photo tells you all you need to know about the Tories.

Richard Grosvenor Plunkett-Ernle-Erle-Drax, candidate for South Dorset.




Part-Timer
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Nov 25, 2019, 12:46 PM

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47% and a bg majority will legitimise the conservatives to do what ever they want
....after all, its almost as much of the vote as Remain got!!


And even I, as a right-wing, low-tax, brexiteer, don’t want a conservative Government to have a 100 seat majority. 20-30 would be sufficient to get Brexit done and avoid the devastation of a Corbyn Premiership.

Theresa May had a majority of 20 when she called the General Election in 2017 on the grounds that it wasn't enough to get Brexit done.


007Dale
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Nov 25, 2019, 12:53 PM

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In Reply To
47% and a bg majority will legitimise the conservatives to do what ever they want
....after all, its almost as much of the vote as Remain got!!


And even I, as a right-wing, low-tax, brexiteer, don’t want a conservative Government to have a 100 seat majority. 20-30 would be sufficient to get Brexit done and avoid the devastation of a Corbyn Premiership.

Theresa May had a majority of 20 when she called the General Election in 2017 on the grounds that it wasn't enough to get Brexit done.


But she had to deal with the Gaukeward* squad. The likes of Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve etc have been purged. All Tory candidates have agreed to Boris’s deal.

*Although to be fair, her awkward squad and Boris’s are different. For her the awkward ones were the ERG. They are now folded into BoJo’s deal.


(This post was edited by 007Dale on Nov 25, 2019, 12:56 PM)


PaulC
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Nov 25, 2019, 1:57 PM

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"Support for the Tories has slipped in a new election opinion poll released after the party’s official manifesto launch.

Tories 41 (-1)
Labour 30 (+2)

...
"A key policy in the Conservative party manifesto – launched by Boris Johnson in Telford on Sunday – has been slammed as ‘deceit’ by Labour. The PM has promised to deliver 50,000 more nurses for the NHS but it has been revealed that nearly half of them are already working for the health service."
https://metro.co.uk/...p;utm_medium=twitter


007Dale
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Nov 25, 2019, 3:15 PM

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"Support for the Tories has slipped in a new election opinion poll released after the party’s official manifesto launch.

Tories 41 (-1)
Labour 30 (+2)

...
"A key policy in the Conservative party manifesto – launched by Boris Johnson in Telford on Sunday – has been slammed as ‘deceit’ by Labour. The PM has promised to deliver 50,000 more nurses for the NHS but it has been revealed that nearly half of them are already working for the health service."
https://metro.co.uk/...p;utm_medium=twitter


Come on Paul, you’re better than that. Assume this polls relates to Survation, taken 20th-23rd November - ie before the manifesto launched! The manifesto may yet have an adverse impact on Tory support, but we need to wait for the relevant surveys to come out covering that period.

DeltaPoll also covers the period up to 23rd November with a 2 point drop in the Tories lead to 11%.

All polls still have a 10%.+ lead for the Tories, but there’s still over 2 weeks for that to change.


PaulC
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Nov 25, 2019, 5:02 PM

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All polls still have a 10%.+ lead for the Tories, but there’s still over 2 weeks for that to change.


Labour's coming to get you 007Dale


Westminster voting intention:

CON: 41% (-1)
LAB: 34% (+2)
LDEM: 13% (-)
BREX: 4% (-1)

via @ICMResearch, 22 - 25 Nov
Chgs. w/ 18 Nov


(This post was edited by PaulC on Nov 25, 2019, 5:04 PM)


PaulC
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Nov 25, 2019, 5:34 PM

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Labour reasserting itself in Wales.

LAB: 38% (+9)
CON: 32% (+4)
PC: 11% (-1)
LDEM: 9% (-3)
BREX: 8% (-7)
GRN: 1% (-2)

via @YouGov, 22 - 25 Nov
Chgs. w/ early Nov


007Dale
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Nov 25, 2019, 6:07 PM

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In Reply To
All polls still have a 10%.+ lead for the Tories, but there’s still over 2 weeks for that to change.


Labour's coming to get you 007Dale


Westminster voting intention:

CON: 41% (-1)
LAB: 34% (+2)
LDEM: 13% (-)
BREX: 4% (-1)

via @ICMResearch, 22 - 25 Nov
Chgs. w/ 18 Nov


Gutted.

Time to cancel the Orangery extension, pull the kids out of private school, trade-in the Range Rover and sell the holiday home.


PaulC
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Nov 26, 2019, 12:25 PM

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For anyone in need of a good laugh.

You have to wait for the punchline though.

https://twitter.com/...997966977196033?s=20


Blanc Mange
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Nov 26, 2019, 2:39 PM

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That was disappointing,i was hoping it was going to be some swivelled eyed loon so i could launch a diatribe on how for the first time ever i wasn't going to vote Conservative but i suppose a person who doesn't know what logic is will do,i loved how the other people sniggered at her replyLaugh.


007Dale
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Nov 27, 2019, 5:58 AM

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It’ll be interesting to see what impact, the utter carnage of Corbyn’s Andrew Neil interview, has on the polling in a few days time. #blownit


windydcfc
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Nov 27, 2019, 6:43 AM

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It’ll be interesting to see what impact, the utter carnage of Corbyn’s Andrew Neil interview, has on the polling in a few days time. #blownit



Why couldn’t he just apologise to the Jewish community ffsMad



Non League Projection - 2020/21: https://docs.google.com/...UTgVhKYTo/edit#gid=0
Step 1: https://www.google.com/....119447550000018&z=7
Step 2: https://www.google.com/...677250654298405&z=15
Step 3: https://www.google.com/...358611350589399&z=16
Step 4: https://www.google.com/...536616305542566&z=16
Step 5: https://www.google.com/...399355140531952&z=16
Step 6: https://www.google.com/...1556307438963813&z=9

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