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Brexit negotiations

 

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Barbie
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Jun 30, 2016, 8:43 AM

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     Brexit negotiations   or Reply Privately

OK, we've voted out.
I admit I was, and remain, a Remainer.
But now we've voted out, what are the red lines?
I'm told by the media that the UK wants full access to the single market but no free movement. This is clearly unacceptable to the EU.
However - given the close nature of the vote, surely not all Leavers were anti immigration, and there will have been other factors, such as Fisheries policy, that played their part.
So, what's the best outcome for the consensus?
Membership of the EEA, free movement, control of Fisheries policy and marginally reduced rights to out of work benefits for EU citizens.
Would that swing the balance?


acmold
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Jun 30, 2016, 9:39 AM

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Post #2 of 446 (14651 views)
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     Re: [Barbie] Brexit negotiations [In reply to]   or


In Reply To
OK, we've voted out.
I admit I was, and remain, a Remainer.
But now we've voted out, what are the red lines?
I'm told by the media that the UK wants full access to the single market but no free movement. This is clearly unacceptable to the EU.
However - given the close nature of the vote, surely not all Leavers were anti immigration, and there will have been other factors, such as Fisheries policy, that played their part.
So, what's the best outcome for the consensus?
Membership of the EEA, free movement, control of Fisheries policy and marginally reduced rights to out of work benefits for EU citizens.
Would that swing the balance?


Funny we are talking Red Lines when one of the problems with the EU is Red Tape which makes both Red and Blues see Red.

A watered down EU or something of that ilk would probably be preferred by not only the UK but other members.

On the immigration front I really can't see any problem with anyone coming here who is going to work if they have a job waiting for them, lets be honest about this how many of our own unemployed would actually take many (not all but many) of the jobs the EU workers do?. If they were willing to do so they would have taken them in the first place.


Tykeoldboy
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Jun 30, 2016, 2:38 PM

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Post #3 of 446 (14569 views)
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     Re: [acmold] Brexit negotiations [In reply to]   or Reply Privately

Free movement of people and goods is a must.

Stopping benefits for non-EU citizens in the UK with maybe a proviso once they have lived & worked in the UK for a minimum period of time then they can claim unemployment benefits should they need it and they remain in the UK, but only for 6 months.

Since the UK isn't part of Schengen then border controls don't come into the discussion, although the UK government do need to tighten up on this, especially for non EU citizens. EU citizens could be given a UK work permit, similar to the Swiss work permits that you had to have when I worked in Switzerland.

Keeping border personnel in Calais is a must otherwise the French authorities will just open the gates to rid themselves of the immigrants living near Calais.

The UK also need to remove itself from the EU Human Rights legislation and deal with this issue themselves.


Barbie
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Jun 30, 2016, 8:15 PM

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Post #4 of 446 (14464 views)
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In Reply To
.

The UK also need to remove itself from the EU Human Rights legislation and deal with this issue themselves.


Human Rights is dealt with under the a convention that is nothing to do with the EU and by a court that is not an EU court.
Britain was, of course, the driving force behind the Convention after WWII


jon b
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Jun 30, 2016, 8:18 PM

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Post #5 of 446 (14455 views)
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Keeping border personnel in Calais is a must otherwise the French authorities will just open the gates to rid themselves of the immigrants living near Calais.


Isn't that entirely up to the French?


hawkwind
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Jun 30, 2016, 9:18 PM

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Post #6 of 446 (14404 views)
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In Reply To
Keeping border personnel in Calais is a must otherwise the French authorities will just open the gates to rid themselves of the immigrants living near Calais.


Isn't that entirely up to the French?


No it isn't.

The agreement is bilateral and part of a number of accords made between the UK and France to aid travellers.

Examples. The border for immigration checks is Calais for traffic travelling from France to UK, and Cheriton (Eurotunnel) Dover (Ferry) for traffic travelling from UK to France. Eurostar has the same arrangement with UK immigration checks conducted at Gare du Nord (Paris), Lille Europe, Calais Frethun and Bruxelles Midi (Brussels) and Schengen immigration checks conducted at St Pancras, Ebbsfleet and Ashford.

It works well for all travellers so I for one would like to keep it.

The current losers of the arrangement are evidently the good citizens of Calais which explains why there are noises from the concerned regional authority. The agreements though are bilateral not dependent on EU membership.

(This post was edited by hawkwind on Jun 30, 2016, 9:20 PM)


BigJR
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Jul 1, 2016, 2:04 PM

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Post #7 of 446 (14193 views)
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     Re: [hawkwind] Brexit negotiations [In reply to]   or Reply Privately

If we agree to complete freedom of movement so we can continue with free trade, then the whole Referendum was a farce and would NOT go down well with the majority of those who voted. Must be the nearest this would be to the next civil war after Oliver Cromwell and Charles I.

Anyway, now that Boris has ruled himself out of the running for leadership, it will all depend who gets it.

May, a 'Remain' campaigner, or Gove, a staunch 'Brexit' man. Odds on it'll be one of them. I'm started to smell dirty politics involved.

Nothing new there then, with the Tory party.


(This post was edited by BigJR on Jul 1, 2016, 5:15 PM)


Tykeoldboy
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Jul 1, 2016, 4:26 PM

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Post #8 of 446 (14140 views)
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     Re: [BigJR] Brexit negotiations [In reply to]   or Reply Privately

I read an article yesterday about how the UK will exit the EU. it could mean new legislation has to be passed in parliament to allow Article 50 to be invoked. This new legislation could then be rejected by the House of Lords. The only thing we know now for sure is the David Cameron has divided the country and isn't hanging around to sort out his mess.

On the subject of mess, the invisible man, George Osborne said that his plan for a budget surplus by 2020 has been abandoned. S**t just doesn't stick to this man. All his targets have failed or watered down.


Richard Rundle
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Jul 1, 2016, 5:35 PM

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Post #9 of 446 (14107 views)
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     Re: [BigJR] Brexit negotiations [In reply to]   or Reply Privately


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If we agree to complete freedom of movement so we can continue with free trade, then the whole Referendum was a farce and would NOT go down well with the majority of those who voted.


But surely it can't have come as much of a surprise? That was "out there" well before the referendum, and it seemed to be the reason Gove (and as far as I can see only Gove of the big players) said we needed to be out of the single market as well as the EU.


Ronsdog
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Jul 1, 2016, 10:10 PM

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Post #10 of 446 (13934 views)
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If we agree to complete freedom of movement so we can continue with free trade, then the whole Referendum was a farce and would NOT go down well with the majority of those who voted.


Associate membership with free movement of LABOUR. SimplesWink

Might not suit the unions but that's the way forward.


Barbie
First Team Regular

Jul 4, 2016, 12:22 PM

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Post #11 of 446 (13416 views)
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In Reply To

In Reply To
If we agree to complete freedom of movement so we can continue with free trade, then the whole Referendum was a farce and would NOT go down well with the majority of those who voted.


Associate membership with free movement of LABOUR. SimplesWink

Might not suit the unions but that's the way forward.

Associate membership isn't likely. All 27 other nations would have to agree and the risk to the Union is too great.

As to Free movement not going down well with the majority who voted. If we assume that the 48% Remainers were content with Freedom of movement, we then only need to look at the motivation of those who voted Leave. Some objected to the CAP, some to Common Fisheries, some only wished to give Cameron a bloody nose.
It therefore cannot follow, AS A CERTAINTY, that a majority wished to end free movement


Ronsdog
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Jul 4, 2016, 1:17 PM

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Post #12 of 446 (13375 views)
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     Re: [Barbie] Brexit negotiations [In reply to]   or Reply Privately

 

The Germans and French seem split over the way forward....

http://www.msn.com/...p;ocid=mailsignoutmd

I'm convinced that a fudge will be arrived at.


Barbie
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Jul 4, 2016, 1:25 PM

Posts: 1188
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Post #13 of 446 (13365 views)
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The Germans and French seem split over the way forward....

http://www.msn.com/...p;ocid=mailsignoutmd

I'm convinced that a fudge will be arrived at.

The Telegraph quotes an unnamed German minister and implies that the President of the Commission is an alcoholic.
Must be true then.....


BigJR
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Jul 5, 2016, 2:40 PM

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Post #14 of 446 (13209 views)
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The Germans and French seem split over the way forward....


http://www.msn.com/...p;ocid=mailsignoutmd

I'm convinced that a fudge will be arrived at.


Nothing new there, then !!



jon b
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Jul 10, 2016, 6:18 PM

Posts: 2870
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Post #15 of 446 (12955 views)
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     Re: [BigJR] Brexit negotiations [In reply to]   or Reply Privately

My fervent hope is that whoever wins the Tory leadership contest appoints a team of Ministers to lead the negotiations. A team comprising Bojo, Gove, Leadsom (if not PM), Grayling, Farage (Ho, Ho) etc.

Then see what's the best deal they can come up with. Tongue Their chance to put their money where their mouths are.


BigJR
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Jul 10, 2016, 6:34 PM

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Post #16 of 446 (12933 views)
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My fervent hope is that whoever wins the Tory leadership contest appoints a team of Ministers to lead the negotiations. A team comprising Bojo, Gove, Leadsom (if not PM), Grayling, Farage (Ho, Ho) etc.

Then see what's the best deal they can come up with. Tongue Their chance to put their money where their mouths are.


I'm pretty sure it'll be May now that Gove lost out.

May was originally a 'Remain' supporter.


hawkwind
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Jul 11, 2016, 11:30 PM

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Post #17 of 446 (12776 views)
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In Reply To

In Reply To
If we agree to complete freedom of movement so we can continue with free trade, then the whole Referendum was a farce and would NOT go down well with the majority of those who voted.


Associate membership with free movement of LABOUR. SimplesWink

Might not suit the unions but that's the way forward.

Associate membership isn't likely. All 27 other nations would have to agree and the risk to the Union is too great.

As to Free movement not going down well with the majority who voted. If we assume that the 48% Remainers were content with Freedom of movement, we then only need to look at the motivation of those who voted Leave. Some objected to the CAP, some to Common Fisheries, some only wished to give Cameron a bloody nose.
It therefore cannot follow, AS A CERTAINTY, that a majority wished to end free movement


And some only voted leave because of the extra 350M a week for the NHS.

Why should British citizens be screwed in negotiations?

To satisfy me free movement of people has to continue.

I do believe there is however scope to reduce immigration by changing the benefits system.which should be mutually acceptable to both GB and the EU.

For example:
For EU people in UK AND for UK people in other EU countries:
No new access to child benefits;
Limit total unemployment benefits to say 25% of previously paid contributions (tax and social security) in the host country.

Good idea? Bad idea?


Part-Timer
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Jul 12, 2016, 10:10 AM

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Post #18 of 446 (12701 views)
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     Re: [hawkwind] Brexit negotiations [In reply to]   or Reply Privately

I am not at all clear about what there is to negotiate with the EU. We have announced that we are going to leave. What are we going to do if we don't like the EU's response? Stay? What cards do we actually hold in these 'negotiations'? Jean-Claude Juncker's remark to Nigel Farage ('Why are you still here') rather sums up what my attitude to the UK would be if I was running the EU.


Barbie
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Jul 12, 2016, 11:20 AM

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Post #19 of 446 (12664 views)
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We need to negotiate trade relationships, travel relationships for workers, business travellers and holidaymakers, security cooperation, border controls - not least the land borders between N.Ireland and the Republic of Ireland and Gibraltar and Spain, education relationships, science cooperation, airline administration issues, food standards cooperation, fisheries access (this is not as simple as may be thought - the UK currently has 30% of the EU fishing quota but only 13% of the territorial waters), environmental cooperation, healthcare cooperation (eg the Ehic card), residency relationships (do we take back all our pensioners in return for all their care workers - an over simplification, I grant you)
And I'm only just scratching the surface.


Part-Timer
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Jul 12, 2016, 12:03 PM

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Post #20 of 446 (12617 views)
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     Re: [Barbie] Brexit negotiations [In reply to]   or Reply Privately

I appreciate that all that needs to be done. However my confusion arises from the fact that we have already said we are going. If we don't invoke Article 50 the others presumably won't waste their time negotiating with us (much like they did with David Cameron's attempts to reform the organisation before the referendum). But what if we get to the end of the two years and we don't like the results of the negotiations? Do we not leave after all? Perhaps we could have another referendum at that point. At least we would all know what we are voting about.


BigJR
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Jul 12, 2016, 12:06 PM

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Post #21 of 446 (12612 views)
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With for the new PM to declare her Cabinet.

With a new Foreign Secretary and a possible specific Minister to oversee exit conditions will tell us a lot.


Barbie
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Jul 12, 2016, 12:39 PM

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Post #22 of 446 (12602 views)
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If we don't come to an agreement at the end of 2 years, trade goes onto WTO tariff rules - which are pretty punitive, though there is the possibility that, if an agreement is close, interim arrangements could be made. Whilst it is undoubtedly in the interest of EU manufacturers for free trade to continue, this scenario is more damaging for the UK in terms of inward investment (and non EU companies who have European HQs in the UK at present)
All the others run on a continuum from 'no change' to 'no deal' - so, for example, we might come to an agreement to continue full access to intelligence on terror suspects, or we might end up in a situation where we or they are thinking that it's better to hang on to our own information and bargain with it, rather than using it for the common good (i.e. if you want info, I want something in return).
It may be that agreement is reached in some areas and not in others.
The problem is, that the longer it drags on, the more the uncertainty, the more damage to the economy.
Another referendum on the final deal would be potentially suicidal- if it's voted down, we'd have no deal on anything and the International status of North Korea.


jon b
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Jul 12, 2016, 1:11 PM

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Post #23 of 446 (12570 views)
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I prefer to be positive and hope that on both sides the grown ups will be in charge of the negotiations.
It aint going to be easy but I'd have thought Merkel and May will be pushing from either side to come up with something that works.
A lot depends on the Vicar's daughter here and the Pastor's daughter in Germany.


PaulC
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Jul 15, 2016, 10:46 PM

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Post #24 of 446 (12338 views)
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No Brexit until Scotland agrees.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/...that-she-believes-w/


Barbie
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Jul 15, 2016, 11:20 PM

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Post #25 of 446 (12308 views)
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No Turkish accession any time soon given tonight's events.

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