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Brexit negotiations

 

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mip
Man City Transfer Target!


Mar 28, 2017, 9:37 AM

Posts: 9850
Location: Odense
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Special question time on Brexit tonight


I saw some of it, the EU are obviously hoping for one last big pay day before we leave and the government need to stand firm, we've been a cash cow for long enough.


Can you substantiate that claim with numbers?


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Mar 28, 2017, 9:40 AM

Posts: 10521
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Post #277 of 446 (2672 views)
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Special question time on Brexit tonight


I saw some of it, the EU are obviously hoping for one last big pay day before we leave and the government need to stand firm, we've been a cash cow for long enough.
Talking about 'cash cow'. Who is going to subsidize the farming industry to the tune of £6 billion a year & should the farming industry be propped up by our well earned taxes?




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007Dale
First Team Star

Mar 28, 2017, 9:57 AM

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Post #278 of 446 (2664 views)
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Special question time on Brexit tonight


I saw some of it, the EU are obviously hoping for one last big pay day before we leave and the government need to stand firm, we've been a cash cow for long enough.


Can you substantiate that claim with numbers?


In 2015, the U.K. Total bill was £18bn, we get a £5bn rebate, so the sub-total is £13bn. The EU spent £4.5bn in the U.K., therefore our net cost of being in the EU in 2015 was £8.5bn.

These are the facts.


Part-Timer
Chelsea Transfer Target

Mar 28, 2017, 10:10 AM

Posts: 4550
Location: Huntingdonshire
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Post #279 of 446 (2656 views)
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I'm probably stating the obvious here but the referendum was about whether we remained in the EU or not and we know what the outcome was.


And every time we have a general election, whoever ends up on the losing side still campaigns against the government, and policies end up being discussed, argued for and against and no-one calls the opposition "whingers" or "moaners".

Why should the losers of a single issue (albeit a big issue) referendum be any different?

There will be 45 years worth of legislation to trawl through to repeal and replace with UK versions and a lot of the "fine detail" will actually be very important to lots of voters, both "Leave" and "Remain". For instance, will access to European health services be available if you fall ill on holiday. Closer to home, perhaps, will the FA be able to establish quotas on foreign players in professional football.

There's lots to so and a lot of debating and negotiating to do over the next 12 months and to suggest that people can argue against the Government of the day on things like the NI changes for self-employed people, but not against, say, access to fishing grounds, seems ridiculous.





Well I can't recall any political parties demanding a rerun of the election because they weren't voted into office can you?

They don't need to. Five years later there will be another election when everyone has a chance to decide whether the previously elected Government has done what they promised and whether they should be allowed to continue. The referendum said the majority wanted out of the EU. What would be wrong with another referendum, when they have finished negotiating, to see if people are happy with what they have come up with and still want to leave? The politicians didn't think they were capable of making the decision on whether we should stay or go and gave that responsibility directly to the people. Why are they suddenly capable of making the decision as to whether the deal they negotiate is an appropriate one?


mip
Man City Transfer Target!


Mar 28, 2017, 10:26 AM

Posts: 9850
Location: Odense
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Post #280 of 446 (2642 views)
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Can you substantiate that claim with numbers?


In 2015, the U.K. Total bill was £18bn, we get a £5bn rebate, so the sub-total is £13bn. The EU spent £4.5bn in the U.K., therefore our net cost of being in the EU in 2015 was £8.5bn.

These are the facts.


You should also subtract money that the EU spends on international aid etc, money UK would be spending in any case.

Given the size of the country, I can see in sources that UK come out as the 8th biggest contributor to EU (counted relative to population).

With the benefits British businesses etc accrue on the basis of an EU membership, I don't think you qualify as a "cash cow".

Leaving all this aside, I think there's an ideological perspective as well. We in western Europe have a responsibility to help Eastern European countries - who just happened to be on the wrong side of the iron curtain - to get back on an equal economical footing. But I know this is an aspect that most people couldn't care less about.


mip
Man City Transfer Target!


Mar 28, 2017, 10:53 AM

Posts: 9850
Location: Odense
Team(s): Portsmouth, OB, Svendborg fB, Tved B

Post #281 of 446 (2632 views)
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Special question time on Brexit tonight


I saw some of it, the EU are obviously hoping for one last big pay day before we leave and the government need to stand firm, we've been a cash cow for long enough.


Isaac, by the way, didn't you tell everyone to let the government alone, let them get on with their job, and not telling them what to do? Tongue


007Dale
First Team Star

Mar 28, 2017, 10:58 AM

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Post #282 of 446 (2630 views)
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Can you substantiate that claim with numbers?


In 2015, the U.K. Total bill was £18bn, we get a £5bn rebate, so the sub-total is £13bn. The EU spent £4.5bn in the U.K., therefore our net cost of being in the EU in 2015 was £8.5bn.

These are the facts.


You should also subtract money that the EU spends on international aid etc, money UK would be spending in any case.

Given the size of the country, I can see in sources that UK come out as the 8th biggest contributor to EU (counted relative to population).

With the benefits British businesses etc accrue on the basis of an EU membership, I don't think you qualify as a "cash cow".

Leaving all this aside, I think there's an ideological perspective as well. We in western Europe have a responsibility to help Eastern European countries - who just happened to be on the wrong side of the iron curtain - to get back on an equal economical footing. But I know this is an aspect that most people couldn't care less about.



We choose how much we spend on international aid, so not sure why you want to discount that. There's certainly no obligation for us to replace that money out of our own budget.

I've provided the facts as requested, I'll let others argue the toss over benefits we can't easily quantify. All I will say is that we are not the worlds credit card. We are not responsible for countries financial state in Eastern Europe - we already offer them significant support in the form of NATO.


mip
Man City Transfer Target!


Mar 28, 2017, 11:09 AM

Posts: 9850
Location: Odense
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Post #283 of 446 (2625 views)
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In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To
Can you substantiate that claim with numbers?


In 2015, the U.K. Total bill was £18bn, we get a £5bn rebate, so the sub-total is £13bn. The EU spent £4.5bn in the U.K., therefore our net cost of being in the EU in 2015 was £8.5bn.

These are the facts.


You should also subtract money that the EU spends on international aid etc, money UK would be spending in any case.

Given the size of the country, I can see in sources that UK come out as the 8th biggest contributor to EU (counted relative to population).

With the benefits British businesses etc accrue on the basis of an EU membership, I don't think you qualify as a "cash cow".

Leaving all this aside, I think there's an ideological perspective as well. We in western Europe have a responsibility to help Eastern European countries - who just happened to be on the wrong side of the iron curtain - to get back on an equal economical footing. But I know this is an aspect that most people couldn't care less about.



We choose how much we spend on international aid, so not sure why you want to discount that. There's certainly no obligation for us to replace that money out of our own budget.

I've provided the facts as requested, I'll let others argue the toss over benefits we can't easily quantify. All I will say is that we are not the worlds credit card. We are not responsible for countries financial state in Eastern Europe - we already offer them significant support in the form of NATO.



You can google "0.7% target". I'm pretty certain that you count part of the money EU spend in your own international aid.

Being the 8th largest contributor to EU doesn't really equate "being the world's credit card", I think.

And as I said, it's a matter of ideology whether you think that you should help others.Being a rich country, my opinion is that it would suit Britain to do so.


Ronsdog
First Team Star


Mar 28, 2017, 12:40 PM

Posts: 2680
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Post #284 of 446 (2599 views)
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On a wider point, I have long believed that the EU is a financial basket case and destined for failure sooner rather than later. German, French and Italian banks have not recovered from the 2008 crash as their current share prices and debt ratios indicate. The economies of Greece, Spain and Portugal are symptomatic of this great European failure.

Pro-EU campaigners are in the doldrums. Their efforts now consist of publishing what the Leave camp promised during the campaign. They’re calling it the “Brexit Contract”. And they’re hoping the EU will force the government to breach it. Which the EU is trying to achieve.
The EU’s lead negotiator Michel Barnier continues to lay out his position. Any deal with the EU will require Britain to implement similar policies to the EU’s. We can’t become a low regulation tax haven, for example. After all, it’s unfair to be better than the EU.

Ignoring how on earth such a compulsion is supposed to work in practice, the EU’s position presents the UK with an enormous opportunity. We should go it alone.

Christian Noyer, the former governor of the French central bank, lamented in the Financial Times that the EU doesn’t have its own financial centre. “No other sovereign or monetary zone would allow itself to rely on an offshore centre.”

Allow? It’s not a political decision – it’s a market one. The EU’s best effort to create a European financial centre would be hilarious. It can’t even manage its existing ones. Another European banking crisis is on the horizon.

A series of political elections will be held in 2017, with many to be fought on lines of ‘for’ and ‘against’ membership of the euro. For the first time since its inception in 1957, the European Union cannot afford to take its future for granted

Eurozone economic output has been dire for almost 20 years.

No one pretends the single currency hasn’t contributed to the malaise.

As a response to the continent’s sovereign debt crisis, the European Commission set up the ‘S0’ Indicator – to analyse a country’s economic data.

In February this year, a report from Deutsche Bank warned that, according to the S0 indicator, SIX EU member states are now a financial concern. Its conclusion is especially worrying:

“Even if impending fiscal crises are signalled correctly, there might not be enough time left to counteract the critical developments.”

This is like having an earthquake warning system in place… but with no means to evacuate.

Poor economic performance invariably manifests itself politically.

That makes this year a critical juncture for Europe’s future. And it will play out as the following elections take place:

France – 7th May: The far-right Front National party is the second favourite to win the Presidential election, and is avowedly anti-EU. Its leader Marine Le Pen plans to reintroduce the Franc. Even if they don’t win, they are still pulling France in an increasingly anti-EU direction.

Italy – by April 2018: General election called after pro-EU PM Matteo Renzi was comprehensively defeated on 4th December 2016 in a constitutional referendum. Italy’s three opposition parties are in favour of leaving the euro, which they believe is preventing the country’s economy from growing.

Germany – by October: Angela Merkel’s CDU party has been losing seats to the anti-EU AFD. While unlikely at this point, a Merkel defeat would be the biggest possible blow to the EU’s future. Germany is the continent’s biggest economy.

The countries listed above are the three biggest economies in the Eurozone. If one of them voted to leave the euro or the EU, it would almost certainly precipitate the end of the European Union.

But the potential dangers do not end with them.

Hungary – by Spring 2018: The popular current Prime Minister Viktor Orban has incurred the wrath of the EU by erecting wire borders around the country – in defiance of the EU, which he openly disparages. This is one of the ex Eastern Bloc countries that Mip still feels we owe an allegiance to support . That surely is the job of another failed EU institution the European Bank of Reconstrction and Development.

If just one of these countries left the EU, the financial strain would be immense. The whole project would be called into question. Britain has already left. Should another nation follow… it would be like a theatre filling up with smoke – how long before it becomes a rush to the exit?


007Dale
First Team Star

Mar 28, 2017, 1:11 PM

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Very good, reasoned & rational post Ronsdog


jon b
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Mar 28, 2017, 1:43 PM

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Post #286 of 446 (2544 views)
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Ignoring how on earth such a compulsion is supposed to work in practice, the EU’s position presents the UK with an enormous opportunity. We should go it alone.



I really, really, really hope you're right.

However, I remember how desperate we were to join the Common Market, to be a member of the club rather than on the outside.

Given that we import vast amounts of food and fuel, the mantra during the 1960s and 1970s was "Export or Die".

At the time access to the European market was seen as crucial to our survival. Maybe globalisation has altered things, but I worry that as a nation we seem to be carrying around masses of debt and hoping that nobody notices.


mip
Man City Transfer Target!


Mar 28, 2017, 1:52 PM

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Post #287 of 446 (2535 views)
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Very good, reasoned & rational post Ronsdog


Indeed!

Reasoned and rational posts are always good no matter if you agree or not! That's proper debate. That's how you broaden your perspective and learn things. And it's what shows populism up for exactly what it is.

One fallacy though, many anti-EU people take pro-EU people to be 100% in agreement with everything that EU stands for. That's wrong. I'm pro-EU because I think it's a better choice than not having EU. There are plenty of things that could be changed, and that we should work to change.


(This post was edited by mip on Mar 28, 2017, 1:52 PM)


PaulC
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Mar 28, 2017, 5:42 PM

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Post #288 of 446 (2494 views)
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In 2015, the U.K. Total bill was £18bn, we get a £5bn rebate, so the sub-total is £13bn. The EU spent £4.5bn in the U.K., therefore our net cost of being in the EU in 2015 was £8.5bn.

These are the facts.


Well that's just brilliant.

We save £8.5 billion (actually less than that since there are payments from the EU to private companies not included in that figure) and it will only cost us £22 billion.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/...ms-union-gdp-2016-10

Bargain!


PaulC
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Mar 29, 2017, 8:12 AM

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Time for a rematch - the 0.52 v the 27.48


(This post was edited by PaulC on Mar 29, 2017, 8:14 AM)


PaulC
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Mar 29, 2017, 8:17 AM

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Ropemaker
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Mar 29, 2017, 9:42 AM

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Isaac, by the way, didn't you tell everyone to let the government alone, let them get on with their job, and not telling them what to do? Tongue

And how about if the government come back and admit the deal they've got is so bad that we may as well stay in the EU? Wink



Just because you're paranoid, it doesn't mean they're not out to get you.


Ronsdog
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Mar 29, 2017, 12:47 PM

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And how about if the government come back and admit the deal they've got is so bad that we may as well stay in the EU? Wink


In short a political suicide note. I don't think so...

Anyway the hare, Article 50, is now off and running.

The divorce proceedings have begun.Cool


(This post was edited by Ronsdog on Mar 29, 2017, 12:49 PM)


PaulC
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Mar 29, 2017, 5:41 PM

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Article 50 can be revoked at any time in the next two years.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/...2017-3?r=US&IR=T


Tykeoldboy
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Mar 30, 2017, 2:13 PM

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Post #294 of 446 (2262 views)
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A bill will be introduced that will give powers (known as Henry VIII powers)to MP's to make changes to the law to take account of the negotiations as they proceed.

This to me sounds dangerous. It allows MP's to change UK law which could take away some rights and privacy of UK citizens. This bill is suppose to be used to tweak UK laws as EU laws are removed but it could also be used to amend existing UK only laws.

Is the UK moving towards a Putin or Mugabe style of government?



The feeling of utter devastation when you pick up your mug and realise you already finished your tea.

(This post was edited by Tykeoldboy on Mar 30, 2017, 2:14 PM)


007Dale
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Mar 30, 2017, 4:02 PM

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A bill will be introduced that will give powers (known as Henry VIII powers)to MP's to make changes to the law to take account of the negotiations as they proceed.

This to me sounds dangerous. It allows MP's to change UK law which could take away some rights and privacy of UK citizens. This bill is suppose to be used to tweak UK laws as EU laws are removed but it could also be used to amend existing UK only laws.

Is the UK moving towards a Putin or Mugabe style of government?


I'll only worry about that if the General Election in 2020 gets cancelled!

At the minute we have no chance of anything but a strong Tory majority heading our way.
What Corbyn and his socialist chums fail to realise is that they weaken the centre-left ground thus allowing more right extreme right-wing policies to be implemented.


MrTangerineMan
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Mar 30, 2017, 7:15 PM

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Post #296 of 446 (2225 views)
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One thing which may have been overlooked is Article 127 (maybe more important than Article 50):

'Article 127: Each Contracting Party may withdraw from this Agreement provided it gives at least twelve months’ notice in writing to the other Contracting Parties. Immediately after the notification of the intended withdrawal, the other Contracting Parties shall convene a diplomatic conference in order to envisage the necessary modifications to bring to the Agreement.'

British Influence deputy director Jonathan Lis said in The Independent Newspaper:

“It’s not clear whether we are members of the EEA as part of the EU or in our own right. The Government believes we’re in the EEA as part of the EU – if that’s the case then we leave the EEA with Brexit and then we need to reapply to join. “If however we’re independent, then there are two options for the Government. Either the Government can decide to stay in the EEA and the EU cannot force us out, which gives the UK a boost in negotiations and turns all power from EU to UK. If the Government decides to leave [the EEA] then they have to trigger Article 127. “Obviously the best solution is to be part of single market. The best option is to be part of the EEA independently. “


acmold
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Mar 30, 2017, 10:03 PM

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Post #297 of 446 (2198 views)
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Many leavers voted to leave on immigration and it now looks like near freedom of movement will be retained as we need EU workers.

Many remainers were not out and out pro EU but thought it was better than leaving. They wanted to have freedom of movement but would like to see reform of EU regulations and laws.

One day after Article 50 it appears immigration is near the bottom of the list and reform and laws are at the top.


007Dale
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Mar 31, 2017, 7:11 AM

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Many leavers voted to leave on immigration and it now looks like near freedom of movement will be retained as we need EU workers.

Many remainers were not out and out pro EU but thought it was better than leaving. They wanted to have freedom of movement but would like to see reform of EU regulations and laws.

One day after Article 50 it appears immigration is near the bottom of the list and reform and laws are at the top.


I think the point is, if we need immigration, we allow it.if we don't, we don't. In the EU, we're not allowed the luxury to decide. However, for me, that wasn't the main reason why i voted to leave.


acmold
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Mar 31, 2017, 8:39 AM

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Post #299 of 446 (2147 views)
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Is that not the whole point it's going to be very difficult to cherry pick imagination if UK residents want any kind of freedom of movement in Europe.

I went to a Jobs Fair last week 25 organisations looking for workers mostly hotel groups and carer organisations. There is a cronic shortage of staff in those sectors. The majority or people who apply to work at them (and were at the Job Fair) are the over 50's and overseas workers. There was an item on BBC breakfast this week about the hotel industry despite paying the living wage there is almost no take up of positions by UK nationals under 50.


007Dale
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Mar 31, 2017, 9:02 AM

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I don't think UK residents will be allowed free movement after brexit. I'm not sure that anyone is expecting that.

There is a seperate question about UK nationals already resident abroad, but I think that will dealt with relatively easily with reciprocal arrangements for EU nationals resident in the UK.

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