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Non League Projections 2019/20

 

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Yorkstar
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Feb 14, 2019, 12:57 PM

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Post #376 of 1236 (10189 views)
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Re: [THDrummer1] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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Will the FA do this if it makes sense and is fair???


That is asking why too much of the FA in their decision-making process....


Sarumio
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Feb 14, 2019, 12:59 PM

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Post #377 of 1236 (10186 views)
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Re: [THDrummer1] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

There are more than 16 vacancies at Step 6

There's the following

1 vacancy in Wessex Div One
3 vacancies in Southern Combo Division One (not 2 like you mentioned above)
2 vacancies in CoCo Div One
1 vacancy in Midland Div One
1 Vacancy in ECL Div One North
1 vacancy in ECL Div One South
2 vacancies in SCE Div One

On top of this you mentioned each Hellenic Step 6 division having 16 bteams - they don't one currently has 13 and one has 12. So between them they have 15 vacancies

So there are 26 vacancies at Step 6
And three at Step 5

29 vacancies.

Again i'm also excluding the SWPL


THDrummer1
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Feb 14, 2019, 1:29 PM

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Post #378 of 1236 (10108 views)
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Re: [Sarumio] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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There are more than 16 vacancies at Step 6

There's the following

1 vacancy in Wessex Div One
3 vacancies in Southern Combo Division One (not 2 like you mentioned above)
2 vacancies in CoCo Div One
1 vacancy in Midland Div One
1 Vacancy in ECL Div One North
1 vacancy in ECL Div One South
2 vacancies in SCE Div One

On top of this you mentioned each Hellenic Step 6 division having 16 bteams - they don't one currently has 13 and one has 12. So between them they have 15 vacancies

So there are 26 vacancies at Step 6
And three at Step 5

29 vacancies.

Again i'm also excluding the SWPL
______________

Agreed; I was going on the low side and only putting 16 teams in each of the Hellenic leagues (East and West) and 18 teams Southern Combination 1.

Additionally, It's very unlikely that each of the 27 step 7 leagues from which teams have applied will have an applicant who passes the ground grading and finishes in the top 5. I also havenít considered that some clubs in steps 5 and 6 may Ďgo popí or merge.
I fear it may lead to a right 'dust up' with clubs taking the FA to task if 2 clubs from one step 6 league are relegated and none from another; surely this is why the possibility of reprieves has been built in at step 6, and why clubs have been told about the possibility of lateral transfers.

After all it was the FA who stated that they wanted to be fair and equal across all leagues at the same level when they scrapped the step 6 play-offs.
But this disclaimer must be stated once again: THIS IS THE FA WEíRE DEALING WITH.



Atavistic
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Feb 14, 2019, 4:40 PM

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Post #379 of 1236 (9872 views)
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Re: [THDrummer1] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

It's also worth considering that applicants from outside Step 7 may still get in, such as Jersey Bulls and the teams from the Hellenic Division 2s. These are obviously last priority, but they should be taken into account (if we know of them, at least).



2019/20 stats (including Pre-Season):

New Grounds: 11 (Most Recent: Aldershot Town)
Games: 20
Goals: 65
Goals Per Game (to 2 dp): 3.25
0-0s: 1

My Blog: https://thetortoisetravels.blogspot.co.uk/


pokal02
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Feb 14, 2019, 7:09 PM

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Post #380 of 1236 (9645 views)
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Re: [THDrummer1] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

So 29 vacancies is enough to take everyone (+ Jersey). It will mean some rejigging, but I don't see a problem with the HL 1W expanding to take southwestern WML (or northeastern Western League) clubs. I don't see that in either league the travelling would be out of the ordinary.

The other potential pinch point is probably East Midlands/NCE territory - could be some southern NCEL clubs go to EMCL and more Leics ECL clubs to UCL.


windydcfc
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Feb 14, 2019, 7:23 PM

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Re: [pokal02] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Isnít there 3 known clubs that are outside the pyramid & have applied to join step 6. Jersey, Bracknell Town Reserves & Skelmersdale.



Non League Projection - 2020/21: https://docs.google.com/...UTgVhKYTo/edit#gid=0
Step 1: https://www.google.com/....119447550000018&z=7
Step 2: https://www.google.com/...677250654298405&z=15
Step 3: https://www.google.com/...358611350589399&z=16
Step 4: https://www.google.com/...536616305542566&z=16
Step 5: https://www.google.com/...399355140531952&z=16
Step 6: https://www.google.com/...1556307438963813&z=9


THDrummer1
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Feb 14, 2019, 7:43 PM

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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Very doubtful that all 27 step 7 applicants will finish in the top 5/achieve ground grading. Perfect chance to achieve the 20 teams per division aim and achieve the reduction in travelling.


windydcfc
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Feb 14, 2019, 8:11 PM

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Re: [THDrummer1] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Very doubtful that all 27 step 7 applicants will finish in the top 5/achieve ground grading. Perfect chance to achieve the 20 teams per division aim and achieve the reduction in travelling.



We said this last season & the FA still relegated extra clubs from step 6! I think the FA will still relegate the bottom clubs from all the 20 team step 6 leagues & possibly the 2nd bottom clubs too.



Non League Projection - 2020/21: https://docs.google.com/...UTgVhKYTo/edit#gid=0
Step 1: https://www.google.com/....119447550000018&z=7
Step 2: https://www.google.com/...677250654298405&z=15
Step 3: https://www.google.com/...358611350589399&z=16
Step 4: https://www.google.com/...536616305542566&z=16
Step 5: https://www.google.com/...399355140531952&z=16
Step 6: https://www.google.com/...1556307438963813&z=9


THDrummer1
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Feb 14, 2019, 8:40 PM

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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Whilst nothing would surprise me with the FA it does seem wrong that some leagues could relegate 2 club's and some could relegate none, just because of geography. I could understand if all bottom teams were relegated and second bottom club's were retrieved. When the FA scrapped step 6 play-offs they said that it was partially due to fairness, can't have them in some leagues and not in others, where is the consistency? Relegating all bottom placed club's and some second bottom clubs will not increase the amount of club's at step 6 or reduce the footprint of individual leagues.


paulh66
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Feb 14, 2019, 9:41 PM

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Re: [THDrummer1] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Just having one of my infrequent glances through this section so apologies if I'm just repeating what's already known. But, looking at the NLS Regs, given no more than 27 clubs will come up from step 7, at least 11 clubs will be reprieved from relegation from step 6, determined on a ppg game basis. Any further reprieves (due to vacancies arising) will be discretionary. Then, only if vacancies exist in a particular league, a club outside the NLS system might get to fill that vacancy. If the three named by windydcfc turns out to be all there are, then you'd imagine Jersey and Bracknell reserves get the nod (the CoCo has, I believe, already backed both of them). AFC Skem, though, would presumably have a problem as there's no vacancy (..yet) in the NWCL.
----------------------------
Extracts of relevant regulation (in quotations, with my own tuppen'orth added):

"At the end of the Regular Playing Season the Clubs in the bottom two positions of each of the nineteen Step 6 divisions will be liable to relegation" and "No more than 38 Clubs will be promoted from Step 7." "Where the eligible Clubs count does not reach 38 in number, reprieves of Step 6 Clubs shall come into effect on a points per match basis."

Then the issue of filling vacancies in leagues:

"Where a vacancy arises at Step 5 and below, the question of reprieves shall be dealt with at the sole discretion of the Committee."
(Don't know how they'll go about that but, although some on here may instinctively disagree, I'd expect there to be a consistent pattern in how the committee exercises its discretion in these cases, and that it'd at least be compatible with achieving their overall vision of the so-called 'perfect pyramid.').
Then, to further help fill those vacancies "a League may seek approval from the Committee to receive a club or team not currently in membership of a League within the NLS provided that there is: (a) exceptional circumstances, (b) a vacancy within its constitution, (c) the club meets the entry criteria and (d) promotion and relegation issues have been satisfied." (Self explanatory, but notable that this is done at the individual league level rather than at the step-wide level.)


(This post was edited by paulh66 on Feb 14, 2019, 9:53 PM)


THDrummer1
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Feb 15, 2019, 9:01 AM

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Post #386 of 1236 (8845 views)
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Re: [paulh66] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Just having one of my infrequent glances through this section so apologies if I'm just repeating what's already known. But, looking at the NLS Regs, given no more than 27 clubs will come up from step 7, at least 11 clubs will be reprieved from relegation from step 6, determined on a ppg game basis. Any further reprieves (due to vacancies arising) will be discretionary. Then, only if vacancies exist in a particular league, a club outside the NLS system might get to fill that vacancy. If the three named by windydcfc turns out to be all there are, then you'd imagine Jersey and Bracknell reserves get the nod (the CoCo has, I believe, already backed both of them). AFC Skem, though, would presumably have a problem as there's no vacancy (..yet) in the NWCL.
----------------------------
Extracts of relevant regulation (in quotations, with my own tuppen'orth added):

"At the end of the Regular Playing Season the Clubs in the bottom two positions of each of the nineteen Step 6 divisions will be liable to relegation" and "No more than 38 Clubs will be promoted from Step 7." "Where the eligible Clubs count does not reach 38 in number, reprieves of Step 6 Clubs shall come into effect on a points per match basis."

Then the issue of filling vacancies in leagues:

"Where a vacancy arises at Step 5 and below, the question of reprieves shall be dealt with at the sole discretion of the Committee."
(Don't know how they'll go about that but, although some on here may instinctively disagree, I'd expect there to be a consistent pattern in how the committee exercises its discretion in these cases, and that it'd at least be compatible with achieving their overall vision of the so-called 'perfect pyramid.').
Then, to further help fill those vacancies "a League may seek approval from the Committee to receive a club or team not currently in membership of a League within the NLS provided that there is: (a) exceptional circumstances, (b) a vacancy within its constitution, (c) the club meets the entry criteria and (d) promotion and relegation issues have been satisfied." (Self explanatory, but notable that this is done at the individual league level rather than at the step-wide level.)
_______


To be honest I wasn't aware that the 'points per match' scenario could be implemented in respect of step 6 relegations - seems a fair way of sorting the reprieves though.

Looking at the amount of clubs in each step 6 league it appears to me that a net gain of a minimum of 13 clubs is required (I've increased the two Hellenic divisions to 16, increased the league with 17 clubs to 18 and increased the leagues with 19 clubs to 20 - the leagues with 18 clubs have been left alone).

It appears that there will be an absolute maximum of 30 applicants for step 6 places (27 from step 7, 3 non step 7).

As such a maximum of 17 clubs should be relegated from step 6. I would leave the two Hellenic divisions alone as they are short of clubs; therefore, relegate the bottom club from the remaining divisions.

Lateral transfers should then be carried out. As someone stated previously there is a 'pinch point' around the NCEL and EMCL but there is absolutely no doubt that the southernmost clubs in the NCEL should be transferred to the EMCL (this now promotes into the NCELP) as the footprint of the NCEL is way too large; Skegness should remain as their location isn't close to anywhere Smile. Lateral transfers out of the EMCL would be needed to accommodate this; but isn't reducing travelling one of the main objectives of this whole restructure plan.

Looking at Wazza's projection maps, he seems to have nailed it in my opinion - I have the following message "Dear FA, get Wazza employed"!!!

Cheers



Sarumio
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Feb 15, 2019, 9:30 AM

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Post #387 of 1236 (8774 views)
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Re: [THDrummer1] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Disagree about Step 6 relegations.

If anyone IS to go down from Step 6 - and I see no justification for that to happen at present - then it should be the worst Step 6 sides on a PPG basis. Clubs should not be allowed to 'hide behind' their geographical location. If the worst Step 6 side in the country happens to be Tytherington Rocks in May, then, regardless of them being a member of a Step 6 division, horrendously short on numbers (the Hellenic), it should be them that goes down FIRST.

At the end of the day, there are 29 vacancies at Step 6 - and only 27 possible Step 7 promotes. NO ONE SHOULD BE RELEGATED.

...but if one must go - it should be Tytherington Rocks
Laugh


THDrummer1
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Feb 15, 2019, 9:49 AM

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Post #388 of 1236 (8725 views)
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Re: [Sarumio] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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Disagree about Step 6 relegations.

If anyone IS to go down from Step 6 - and I see no justification for that to happen at present - then it should be the worst Step 6 sides on a PPG basis. Clubs should not be allowed to 'hide behind' their geographical location. If the worst Step 6 side in the country happens to be Tytherington Rocks in May, then, regardless of them being a member of a Step 6 division, horrendously short on numbers (the Hellenic), it should be them that goes down FIRST.

At the end of the day, there are 29 vacancies at Step 6 - and only 27 possible Step 7 promotes. NO ONE SHOULD BE RELEGATED.

...but if one must go - it should be Tytherington Rocks
Laugh


________________________

For what it's worth I totally agree; my last post was a bit of a 'halfway house' between what I think should happen and what I think the FA will do.

It was the FA themselves who stated that the ideal amount of teams in step 6 leagues should be 20; it was the FA themselves who expressed an aim of reducing the footprint of divisions and as such a reduction in travelling.

This is the ideal opportunity to get step 6 sorted. As I stated earlier Wazza's maps and projections are just about spot on in my opinion (maybe an odd adjustment such as Bridlington being placed in the Northern League).

Disclaimer - I am not expressing any opinion re Tytherington Rocks

Wink


THDrummer1
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Feb 15, 2019, 1:52 PM

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Post #389 of 1236 (8311 views)
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Re: [Sarumio] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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Disagree about Step 6 relegations.

If anyone IS to go down from Step 6 - and I see no justification for that to happen at present - then it should be the worst Step 6 sides on a PPG basis. Clubs should not be allowed to 'hide behind' their geographical location. If the worst Step 6 side in the country happens to be Tytherington Rocks in May, then, regardless of them being a member of a Step 6 division, horrendously short on numbers (the Hellenic), it should be them that goes down FIRST.

------------

At the end of the day, there are 29 vacancies at Step 6 - and only 27 possible Step 7 promotes. NO ONE SHOULD BE RELEGATED.

...but if one must go - it should be Tytherington Rocks
Laugh



--------

The Bootiful Game website (article from January) states that there will be no reprieves available to club's finishing in bottom place of step 6 leagues.


ThornburyTom
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Feb 15, 2019, 1:57 PM

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Post #390 of 1236 (8293 views)
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Re: [THDrummer1] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

What might throw a spanner in the works is Tytherington Rocks recently getting their act together. Gave us a good match on Tuesday night (we only won 2-0 and was goalless until the hour mark).

I can see them picking up some points between now and the end of the season. Maybe not catching up Newent, but defo leaving New College Swindon rock bottom.


Dr Love
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Feb 15, 2019, 2:14 PM

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Post #391 of 1236 (8257 views)
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Re: [THDrummer1] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

In the case of the Hellenic Division West two sides (Bicester and Carterton) have already dropped out since the season started so presumably would be considered the bottom two anyway. Relegating the last placed finisher too seems excessive, espcially given the lack of teams available to come up in the region - having a particularly small or large step 6 league in the area is hardly likely to encourage others to want to make the step up.

Also if the FA are going to consider the bottom placed finisher as being relegated, no matter who dropped out during the season, that could result in a team clearly a lot better than the worst in their division suddenly facing the drop from a position of relative safety which would happen if Atherton LR or Hatfield went before the season is out.


Sarumio
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Feb 15, 2019, 2:15 PM

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Re: [THDrummer1] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

So none of the 19 clubs that finish bottom of Step 6 divisions this season are to be reprieved?

I canít see that that stipulation can really be followed through. Thereís 29 vacancies. Relegating 19 extra teams is going to mean there are 48 vacancies. And only 27 max can come up from below.

The FA will NEVER fill Step 6 up with this attitude.


paulh66
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Feb 15, 2019, 2:18 PM

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Post #393 of 1236 (8232 views)
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Re: [THDrummer1] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

 

The Bootiful Game website (article from January) states that there will be no reprieves available to club's finishing in bottom place of step 6 leagues.


But the FA NLS Regulations do not state this. Either the FA has issued some further guidance to this effect or the article on the website you refer to has got it wrong.


(This post was edited by paulh66 on Feb 15, 2019, 2:31 PM)


OllertonLiam
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Feb 15, 2019, 2:56 PM

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Re: [THDrummer1] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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Lateral transfers should then be carried out. As someone stated previously there is a 'pinch point' around the NCEL and EMCL but there is absolutely no doubt that the southernmost clubs in the NCEL should be transferred to the EMCL (this now promotes into the NCELP) as the footprint of the NCEL is way too large; Skegness should remain as their location isn't close to anywhere Smile.



This isn't an official club view, and we've not heard a thing from anyone, but personally I've always thought we'd be moved at the end of this season no matter what.

Geographically, just seems to make sense when you've got the likes of Clipstone and Sherwood on our door step and they're in the EMCL.


THDrummer1
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Feb 15, 2019, 2:56 PM

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Re: [paulh66] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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The Bootiful Game website (article from January) states that there will be no reprieves available to club's finishing in bottom place of step 6 leagues.





But the FA NLS Regulations do not state this. Either the FA has issued some further guidance to this effect or the article on the website you refer to has got it wrong


_______________


To be honest the Bootiful Game website is the only place where I have seen this stipulated; they are usually very accurate in their reporting but may have got confused on this occasion.


If it is a FALC rule then it's a bloody stupid one; why restrict how much of a net gain of clubs you can have when an increase of clubs is needed at step 6. As a few posters have stated there's a good argument for NO clubs being relegated from step 6, but if they are it should be done on a ppg basis, not on a geographical basis.


The only reason I can think of as to why an increase in clubs isn't needed at step 6 is if the Hellenic League scrapped one of it's step 6 divisions, but this would leave a large footprint and vastly increase travelling/cost - one of the main things the FALC want to sort.


Re step 7 applicants; it looks unlikely that Stockport Georgians will achieve a top 5 place so that knocks the applicants down to 26 as a maximum.



paulh66
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Feb 15, 2019, 3:02 PM

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Re: [THDrummer1] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

As a few posters have stated there's a good argument for NO clubs being relegated from step 6, but if they are it should be done on a ppg basis, not on a geographical basis.


As quoted earlier, the regs do stipulate that it'll be done on a ppg basis.

As for the wider point, I vaguely recall it was reported quite a while ago that the FA were ultimately aiming for a 1-2-4-8-16-16 pyramid. If so, that'd partly explain why they're relaxed about not necessarily running with 19 completely full step 6 leagues at present.


(This post was edited by paulh66 on Feb 15, 2019, 3:09 PM)


KingT
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Feb 15, 2019, 3:20 PM

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Re: [THDrummer1] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

A similar scenario may well happen in the Hampshire Prem with Infinity very unlikely to have any facilities suitable, Fleetlands I believe have been granted planning permission for lights but there is a lot of work to do and I would guess they are looking more towards a push next season. Stockbridge have the facilities but are unlikely to finish top 5.

With the Wessex 1 presumably looking to gain a team to take them up to 20, can anyone suggest where this team might come from given the lack of applicants from the Wiltshire or Dorset leagues? Would it be a lateral transfer from elsewhere or perhaps a relaxation of the top 5 rule for Stockbridge (assuming of course the other two fail grading)?


rainworthgord
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Feb 15, 2019, 3:24 PM

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Re: [OllertonLiam] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To
Lateral transfers should then be carried out. As someone stated previously there is a 'pinch point' around the NCEL and EMCL but there is absolutely no doubt that the southernmost clubs in the NCEL should be transferred to the EMCL (this now promotes into the NCELP) as the footprint of the NCEL is way too large; Skegness should remain as their location isn't close to anywhere Smile.

[/repl

This isn't an official club view, and we've not heard a thing from anyone, but personally I've always thought we'd be moved at the end of this season no matter what.

Geographically, just seems to make sense when you've got the likes of Clipstone and Sherwood on our door step and they're in the EMCL.


To be honest, Liam, that is likely to depend on how many NCEL Div One clubs are needed to transfer to the EMCL. If one then Town would be the obvious candidates, but if two itís more likely to be Shirebrook and Bolsover (assuming Boza arenít relegated) because of the ground share.

Iíve not yet looked at the updated projections but the last lot I saw had our longest journey being to Borrowash and Prims who have separate grounds within the same site, about 23 miles. Right now that suits us down to the ground.


THDrummer1
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Feb 15, 2019, 3:26 PM

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Re: [OllertonLiam] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To
Lateral transfers should then be carried out. As someone stated previously there is a 'pinch point' around the NCEL and EMCL but there is absolutely no doubt that the southernmost clubs in the NCEL should be transferred to the EMCL (this now promotes into the NCELP) as the footprint of the NCEL is way too large; Skegness should remain as their location isn't close to anywhere Smile.



This isn't an official club view, and we've not heard a thing from anyone, but personally I've always thought we'd be moved at the end of this season no matter what.

Geographically, just seems to make sense when you've got the likes of Clipstone and Sherwood on our door step and they're in the EMCL.
______________

Hi.

I agree that yourselves, Shirebrook and FC Bolsover (if they don't get relegated) would be ideally suited to lateral transfers from the NCEL1 to the EMCL. I know that in previous years Notts based clubs were reluctant to move to the EMCL as it didn't have an automatic promotion place into the NCELP; but nowadays it is effectively a NCEL1 south division.

There's absolutely no doubt that your travelling would be drastically reduced in the EMCL which in my opinion helps tempt players to sign and potentially increases attendances (a lot of local derbies); it's quite a journey from Ollerton to the Leeds/Bradford based clubs.

We'll see what the ever wise FA decide.



THDrummer1
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In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To
Lateral transfers should then be carried out. As someone stated previously there is a 'pinch point' around the NCEL and EMCL but there is absolutely no doubt that the southernmost clubs in the NCEL should be transferred to the EMCL (this now promotes into the NCELP) as the footprint of the NCEL is way too large; Skegness should remain as their location isn't close to anywhere Smile.

[/repl

This isn't an official club view, and we've not heard a thing from anyone, but personally I've always thought we'd be moved at the end of this season no matter what.

Geographically, just seems to make sense when you've got the likes of Clipstone and Sherwood on our door step and they're in the EMCL.


To be honest, Liam, that is likely to depend on how many NCEL Div One clubs are needed to transfer to the EMCL. If one then Town would be the obvious candidates, but if two itís more likely to be Shirebrook and Bolsover (assuming Boza arenít relegated) because of the ground share.

Iíve not yet looked at the updated projections but the last lot I saw had our longest journey being to Borrowash and Prims who have separate grounds within the same site, about 23 miles. Right now that suits us down to the ground.
________________

Hi Gord.

I know it's guess work at the moment but if Bolsover get relegated do you think Ollerton and Shirebrook would be moved to the EMCL, and if so do you think it would be a good move for them?

Who would be the candidates to be laterally moved out of the EMCL to accommodate them?

Thanks


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